In Geopolitics Today: Monday, November 20th
China Deepens Bay of Bengal Ties with Bangladesh and Myanmar, Neighbouring States Coordinate on Conditional Taliban Recognition, and other stories.
China Deepens Bay of Bengal Ties with Bangladesh and Myanmar
China is deepening ties with Bangladesh and Myanmar along the strategic Bay of Bengal. It built a naval base for Bangladesh's submarines and is constructing facilities in Myanmar near its own infrastructure projects. Through submarine transfers, port construction, and other military support, China aims to become the security partner of choice.
China's growing influence signals its intent to shape the region and counter India. Its support may increase access for the PLA Navy at foreign ports. This would expand China's reach, posing challenges for India and the US. But outcomes remain uncertain — big projects don't inevitably lead to military access. Still, China is patiently laying the groundwork. As the risks of tensions and conflict rise, the US and its allies will likely seek to coordinate actions to prevent Beijing access to the Bay of Bengal.
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China Hosts Arab and Muslim Officials to Mediate in Israel-Hamas War
A delegation of Arab and Muslim foreign ministers visited China to build consensus for ending the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza. China's foreign minister expressed support for Palestinian rights and humanitarian aid. Nevertheless, Israel continues its assault amid talks on a hostage release deal.
The conflict highlights shifting Middle East geopolitics. China is expanding engagement, but the US remains the key broker. Despite growing pressure, Israel and Hamas battle on, neither ready for compromise. While temporary ceasefires are 23possible, longer-term resolution seems distant. The violence reflects intractable divides over disputed land, security, identity and power. With emotions inflamed, the cycle of escalation persists. Gaza's plight should spur renewed diplomacy. But political will is lacking, and peace remains elusive.
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Zambia's $3 Billion Eurobond Restructuring Faces Setback
Zambia suffered a major blow in efforts to restructure $3 billion in Eurobonds, after official creditors rejected a revised bondholder deal. This has stalled Zambia's IMF program, with creditors disputing if bondholder relief matched their own. Zambia's government bonds plunged on the news, putting into question the G20 Common Framework guiding the process.
The breakdown exposes flaws in coordinating complex debt revamps across varied creditors. For Zambia, it prolongs economic limbo and uncertainty. For the G20, it undermines the Framework's credibility. With accountability unclear, such disputes could recur. This suggests better arbitration is needed when good faith efforts fail. As poor country debt strains grow, effective restructuring tools will need to be employed in Zambia. Creative diplomacy may revive Zambia's deal, but fundamental process weaknesses persist.
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Estonia Grants Taiwan Unofficial Government Office
Estonia announced it will allow Taiwan to open an unofficial economic and cultural office, following Lithuania's similar move. While not formal ties, it expands Taiwan's international space amid pressure from China. Beijing condemned the decision, though it was less strident than its severe backlash to Lithuania's decision last year. Estonia hinted its office name may appease China's purported concerns over terminology.
Estonia's decision shows support for Taiwan's global participation as an independent state. But China opposes any such move by Taiwan, regardless of office names. Much depends on how far China goes to punish Estonia. A muted response could signal learning after international backlash on Lithuania. But retaliation would show China prioritizes isolating Taiwan over reputational risks. For Estonia, there are benefits due to increased investments from the United States, Taiwan and others in support of Taiwanese independence. Either way, with another country embracing Taiwan ties, China's goal of isolating it faces rising challenges.
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Armenia Explores Closer Ties with Iran
As Armenia distances from Russia, it is exploring deeper ties with Iran. Trade is booming, with an agreement in place to expand Iranian gas supplies in return for electricity. A highway upgrade also promises to facilitate further exchanges. While affirming Azerbaijan's sovereignty, Iran quietly supports Armenian interests, opposing the Zangezur Corridor and building an alternative transit route.
Growing Armenian-Iranian ties demonstrate attempts by the current pro-Western government to balance the country's reliance on Russia. But divergence on issues like mediation and extra-regional influence between Yerevan and Tehran will challenge the partnership. Iran wants to prevent further Western footholds near its border that could unite adversaries. Its vocal support for Armenians recently drew Baku's ire. While shared interests exist, geopolitics constrain the relationship, with Russia still able to exert leverage as well.
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Neighbouring States Coordinate on Conditional Taliban Recognition
Pakistan's envoy has said Afghanistan's neighbours and Russia already have an understanding in place to recognize the Taliban simultaneously, not unilaterally, if conditions are met. This promises to facilitate bilateral trade and economic ties.
The purported coordination highlights shared interests in stabilizing Afghanistan. Conditional recognition could pressure the Taliban on governance reforms. However, differing priorities amongst the countries could challenge consensus, and unilateral recognition may better incentivize changes. Moreover, cross-border terrorism remains a concern, straining engagement. While pragmatic, progress remains uncertain without resolute action from the Taliban to address issues of regional significance.