In Geopolitics Today: Monday, November 28th
Growing List of Customers for Iran’s UAV Fleet, Moldova’s Energy Security Under Threat After Russian Strikes in Ukraine, and other stories.
Growing List of Customers for Iran’s UAV Fleet
Iran's successes in developing a domestic base able to produce advanced unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) sets the stage for an expansion of its sphere of influence via the export of UAVs.
The number of state actors operating Iranian UAVs is only set to increase in the future, while non-state actors will continue to receive new Iranian drone designs. Iran’s UAV platforms continue to evolve despite the implementation of sanctions targeting Iran's drone industry and its exports abroad.
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The Importance of the Black Sea to Belligerents in the War in Ukraine
There is no sign that Russia has abandoned its long-term objectives on the Black Sea. At minimum, Moscow seeks to hold Ukraine’s Black Sea coastline, affording it a stranglehold over Ukrainian trade by threatening all ships across the dividing line along the Dnieper River.
Ukraine’s Black Sea coastline is crucial for Russian objectives for three key reasons. First, Ukraine cannot function as an independent state without free access to the Black Sea. Second, with Ukraine’s coastline under its control, Russia can project power around NATO’s flanks, pressuring Romania and Bulgaria and sustaining deployments to the Mediterranean. Third, a stronger Russian Black Sea position would allow Moscow to dominate Turkey’s strategic orientation.
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German Air Defence Missiles Used by Ukraine Running Low
Last month, Germany sent the first of four IRIS-T anti-aircraft missile systems to Ukraine for use by Ukrainian defence forces against Russian missile attacks. Now, Ukrainian officials are signalling that Ukraine requires more ammunition for the systems.
The spokesman of the command of the Ukrainian Air Force, Mr. Yury Ignat, announced that Ukraine would like to receive more ammunition for the IRIS-T. The IRIS-T system works in combination and connectivity with US missile defence systems, and may become integrated into a Ukraine-wide air defence system Israel is reportedly helping Ukraine build. Yet a shortage of IRIS-T missiles, opens up a problem for Ukraine as Russia continues to conduct missile strikes.
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Moldova’s Energy Security Under Threat After Russian Strikes in Ukraine
Moldova has historically purchased the other 30% of its electricity not produced domestically in Transdniestria from Ukraine. But now those purchases from Ukraine are under strain as Kyiv has curtailed exports
Ukraine’s damaged power grid and energy systems have meant that roughly half of the country’s population is without power. This has meant a reduction in energy exports from Ukraine to Moldova and EU member states. Romania has stepped in to help with electricity deliveries, agreeing to meet 90% of Moldova's previous electricity imports from Ukraine, but the Isaccea-Vulcanesti line that supplied Romanian electricity to Moldova has been sabotaged, threatening Moldova’s energy security going forward.
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The European Union Looks to Dislodge Russia from Central Asia
As the European Union looks at new ways to diversify trade flows and reduce Russia’s state revenues, Central Asia is emerging as one of the centres of Brussels’ diplomatic offensive. In recent months, EU leaders, diplomats, and officials have pressed Central Asian countries to rethink their relations with Russia and China.
Last month, European Council President Charles Michel met with five Central Asian leaders of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. Since then, continued discussions between Brussels and Central Asian capitals has drawn the condemnation of Moscow, which had counted on more support from allies in the region for its war in Ukraine. Moscow made its displeasure felt month after the US Assistant Secretary of State visited Central Asia and pledged $25 million to bolster trade routes that would divert Central Asian trade routes away from Russia.