In Geopolitics Today: Monday, November 21st
Poland Accepts German Offer to Deploy Patriot Missiles, Anti-Taliban Groups as a Conduit for US Interests in Afghanistan, and other stories.
US Officials Arrive in the Philippines to Reaffirm Security Ties
The US Vice President Kamala Harris has held talks with President Marcos Jr. of the Philippines in which the two are said to have confirmed a joint commitment to strengthen relations in the field of security.
Fresh from attending the APEC summit in Bangkok last week, Harris arrived in the Philippines on Sunday for a three-day visit aimed at renewing and reaffirming the US defence commitment to the country. She is has already met with Marcos Jr. and other senior officials in Manila, and is scheduled to fly out to Palawan, the Philippines’ westernmost island to conduct further talks centred around containing Chinese power with the Filipino elite.
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Poland Accepts German Offer to Deploy Patriot Missiles
Poland’s Defence Minister Mariusz Błaszczak has announced that he has “received with satisfaction” an offer from his German counterpart to deploy some of Germany’s Patriot missile systems to protect Poland’s skies.
Błaszczak has proposed that the additional air defence system be deployed close to the country’s border with Ukraine after a Ukrainian anti-air missile crashed in Poland. The German Defence Minister has confirmed her willingness to place Patriot launchers in Poland, with the number of launchers, their variant, and time of delivery matters that are still to be agreed upon by the two NATO allies.
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Iranian Threat Perceptions May Necessitate Involvement in the Caucasus
Iran has became increasingly bellicose toward Azerbaijan following Baku’s military defeat of Armenia in the Second Karabakh War in 2020. Growing Azeri alignment with Turkey and Israel is being perceived in Tehran as a national security threat emanating from the Caucasus.
Iran has grown increasingly concerned over the outcome of the Second Karabakh War, particularly as Turkish and Israeli support underpinned the technological edge Azeri forces enjoyed over their Armenian counterparts. Iran is convinced that clandestine operations are being undertaken by Israel from Azerbaijan’s territory, while at the same time, Azeri forces continue to boost their military capabilities with the help of Turkish and Israeli arms transfers.
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COP27 Yields No Progress on Phasing Out Fossil Fuels
Almost 200 countries have reached a deal at the COP27 climate summit after days of intense negotiations. The delegates worked out an agreement that includes plans to set up a "loss and damage" fund to support countries dealing with the effects of rising temperatures.
While the COP27 summit yielded a deal to help poorer countries pay for damages associated with climate change, it also exposed divisions that will likely hinder future UN climate summits. The lack of progress in cutting carbon emissions and accelerating the transition from fossil fuels at the summit suggests that the current UN negotiation process on climate change may be reaching its limits.
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Anti-Taliban Groups as a Conduit for US Interests in Afghanistan
Since the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, Washington has sought to recalibrate its interests in the country for the coming years. It is becoming apparent that Washington’s new approach to Afghanistan involves supporting various anti-Taliban forces.
The National Resistance Front of Afghanistan seems to be the primary vessel for the United States to maintain a military presence in the country and influence outcomes on the ground. This includes engagement with any Pashtun anti-Taliban forces that arise in eastern and southern Afghanistan. While the anti-Taliban resistance is still in a nascent state, the strategy to provide the necessary support to fuel a bitter insurgency across Afghanistan may fracture the power of the Taliban in the years to come.
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