In Geopolitics Today - Monday, November 8th
Algeria's Dispute with Morocco Worsens European Energy Insecurity and The Impact of AUKUS on Australia’s Pacific Relations
Algeria's Dispute with Morocco Worsens European Energy Insecurity
The current state of affairs could leave Europe with worrying levels of energy for the coming winter. On top of the lower European natural gas supplies resulting from reduced flows from Russia through the Yamal pipeline, supplies are also threated from North Africa as relations between Morocco and Algeria deteriorate. The European energy market is being confronted by implications resulting from the ongoing political crisis between Morocco and Algeria, which promises to negatively impacting gas supplies to Europe via the Iberian Peninsula.
A political crisis between Algeria and Morocco has intensified in recent months. At the centre of the disagreement has been an ongoing international dispute over the Western Sahara, a region that only the United States recognises as part of Morocco. While Morocco has for years exerted control over the Western Sahara, a regional rebel movement backed by Algeria remains a thorn in Rabat’s side. Fearful of Rabat’s growing political influence and close ties to Israel, Algeria chose to cut diplomatic ties with Morocco in August this year. With relations at an all-time low, and with both parties on opposite sides of a protracted military conflict in the Western Sahara, the politics of energy are now being utilised by Algiers to achieve its goals.
Algiers has decided to shut down energy supplies transiting Morocco after Rabat refused to make investments in the Maghreb-Europe gas export pipeline while choosing to siphon part of the gas transiting its territory as payment for transfer rights. But the effects of the decision will be felt most by Europe, and particularly Spain, which uses Algerian natural gas transiting via the Maghreb-Europe pipeline for heating, industry, and power-generation purposes at home. The Spanish Minister of Energy reported that the country has enough natural gas reserves to last for roughly 43 days of consumption. However, Algeria has offered to send higher volumes to Spain if requested, which, given the soaring price of natural gas, could come at a significant cost to the Spanish treasury. Algeria exports roughly 130 billion cubic meters of natural gas every year, making the country Africa’s largest gas exporter.
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The Impact of AUKUS on Australia’s Pacific Relations
The September announcement of the AUKUS security partnership between Australia, the United States, and the United Kingdom has caused discomfort to Australia’s Pacific partners. While Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison proclaimed the agreement as a milestone between the “oldest and most trusted of friends,” regional partners to Australia in the Pacific were less enthusiastic. Canberra failed to consult its Pacific neighbours about the pact until after the deal became public, and so has caught them by surprise, leaving some feeling side-lined.
While some, such as Papua New Guinea’s Prime Minister, were less hostile when stressing that his country only has issues with AUKUS pact if “such activities bring disharmony in the region.” Others were more direct, such as the leader of the opposition in Vanuatu, who expressed disappointment and fear for the future of the region following the AUKUS announcement. The Prime Minister of the Solomon Islands was starker in his language, stating that his government does not support “any form of militarisation” which could “threaten regional and international peace and stability.” The only Pacific nation to welcome the news was Micronesia, a country part of the US defence umbrella, whose President stated that the AUKUS pact will make the region “safer.”
Leaders of Pacific island nations have long been concerned about the growing strategic competition in the region, and remain fearful of being forced to make a difficult choice between China and AUKUS members. But as Australia continues to align more closely with the United States, so too its commitments become increasingly tied to those of Washington. And in a region which has maintained a consistent policy advocating for a nuclear-free Pacific, the arrival of US-built nuclear-powered submarines will cause deep discomfort, particularly as the region’s history is tied to numerous nuclear tests conducted by the United States. That none of the Pacific leaders were consulted by Australia regarding AUKUS will certainly cause concern, something the government in Canberra is likely to try to mitigate as the country attempts a regional outreach campaign following the deal.
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