In Geopolitics Today - Monday, November 22nd
The Lasting Security Dilemma Between Russia & Ukraine and A Contest Over Global Energy Markets Beckons
The Lasting Security Dilemma Between Russia & Ukraine
Ukraine and Russia appear to be drifting toward a military conflict in Europe. Over the years, both Russia and Ukraine have undergone drastic militarisation drives beyond the still-frozen conflict in eastern Ukraine. The loudest voices in both political establishments maintain a focus on intractable issues while each state continues to double down on military solutions for their respective foreign policy crises. The outcome has generated a security dilemma between Russia and Ukraine, where each side opts to bolster their military capabilities and readiness at various points along the border. With cooperation and trust at an all-time low, an incident here between military personnel has the potential to transform into a calamitous conflict.
Moscow has stoked fears by repeatedly amassing tens of thousands of troops, armoured forces and elite ground units to positions less than 150 km from the Ukrainian border. At the same time, Kiev has revitalised its national defence sector and reorganised its armed forces with foreign assistance, and the country has poured considerable wealth into arms imports from Israel, Turkey, the US and the UK. Compounding issues are the varyingly combustive yet intertwined relations between different stakeholders in the conflict. Relations between NATO and Russia remain at an all-time-low, relations between the US and Russia remain tense and adversarial, and relations between Ukraine and Russia remain openly hostile. Over the years, avenues of communication have broken down across multiple levels with the recent breakdown in communications between Moscow and NATO further limiting opportunities for dialogue. Altogether this paints a bleak picture for what to expect in the months ahead.
As diplomatic dialogue between Moscow and Kiev is practically non-existent, the chance of success for any efforts aimed at mediating the escalating crisis are low. The only other significant stakeholder left with which Moscow will deal with regarding Ukraine is the US — the foremost military power within the NATO alliance and the largest supplier of arms to Ukraine. And perhaps this is why the outlook is so bleak: both Moscow and Washington are making considerable investments through policies aimed at achieving vastly different outcomes for Ukraine. In doing so, both powers — fearful of the others’ influence — are increasingly relying on military means to achieve their goals in the crisis, and are thereby worsening the security dilemma on the border between Russia and Ukraine.
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A Contest Over Global Energy Markets Beckons
The United States is rumoured to be preparing an international initiative aimed at flooding the oil market with strategic oil reserves in order to quell high energy prices. According to reports, US President Biden has sought to get the largest energy consumers in the world onside to jointly tap their strategic petroleum reserves in a bid to bring down soaring energy prices. Thus far, some of the largest consumers have all expressed a willingness to cooperate on the US initiative. However, such a move could cause turmoil in the energy markets. If OPEC+ continues to resist US pressures and maintains current levels of supply, the largest producers and consumers may soon clash to determine the price of oil globally.
As the price of oil has risen, the United States has repeatedly pressed the OPEC+ producer group to maintain an adequate global supply of oil. But having found little success in convincing OPEC+ of the need for increased supply, Washington is turning to other ways it can impact global energy prices. This comes in the form of a major diplomatic effort to build a coalition of net energy consumers over potentially releasing oil from strategic reserves in tandem. Washington’s attempt to marshal support from China, India, Japan, and South Korea promises to be a major boost to achieving lower energy prices as the grouping makes up the world’s top energy consumers. By jointly tapping their respective strategic oil reserves, these consumers can influence the price of energy by flooding the market with vast quantities of oil held in strategic reserve, thereby boosting global supplies and lowering prices.
But the OPEC+ alliance has already rebuffed calls from Washington to speed up production and supply, and there is little sign the 23-nation alliance of producers will increase supply yet. In response to the rumoured release of millions of barrels of crude, OPEC+ representatives have said the move is “unjustified by current market conditions.” Moreover, the group has hinted that it may choose to reconsider current plans to increase oil production, an issue that will be discussed when the group holds a meeting next week. Nevertheless, for US President Joe Biden, the sharp rise in energy prices is a critical issue stemming from political pressures resulting from rising consumer costs. While negotiations over a coordinated supply release have not yet been finalised, the domestic political pressures emanating from high prices will be increasingly difficult to ignore.
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