In Geopolitics Today: Monday, November 27th
Turkey's Exports to Russia Under US Scrutiny, China Partly Eases Rare Mineral Export Curbs, and other stories.
Turkey's Exports to Russia Under US Scrutiny
Turkey has dramatically increased its exports this year of key items that support Russia's war effort, undermining attempts by the United States and allies to choke Moscow's supply chains. Turkey's exports in the first nine months of 2023 of 45 goods categorized by the US as high priority military items soared to $158 million — three times that of last year. Meanwhile, Turkey's imports of those sensitive goods from G7 states surged over 60% to nearly $500 million, suggesting Turkey serves as a trading intermediary.
Expanding trade exploits gaps between US export regulations and European enforcement. With items having both commercial and military uses, companies can disguise ultimate destinations through complex networks. The data indicates major discrepancies between Turkey's reported exports to former Soviet states and those countries' recorded imports, implying goods actually went directly to Russia. As the US Treasury's Brian Nelson visits Turkey to address the military trade, Ankara faces rising tensions with key NATO allies over enabling Russia to equip its forces.
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China Deepens Ties With Uruguay
China upgraded its bilateral relationship with Uruguay to a comprehensive strategic partnership this last week during a visit by Uruguay's president. This elevates Montevideo's ties with Beijing to the level of regional powers Argentina and Brazil. The two sides also agreed to advance talks on a bilateral free trade agreement that could boost Uruguayan beef exports.
Strengthening relations with Uruguay signals China's growing influence as it courts Latin American countries despite intense US efforts to curb its expansion. With Uruguay recognizing Beijing's One China policy, the partnerships facilitate China's political and economic goals in the region. But Uruguay must navigate resistance within the Mercosur trade bloc to unilateral agreements, as well as the body's own complex negotiations with the EU. Still, China's patient bilateral inroads spotlight its rising regional clout.
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US Navy Rescues Seized Israeli-Linked Tanker
The United States Navy has rescued a commercial tanker seized by armed attackers in the Gulf of Aden. The Liberian-flagged chemical tanker Central Park, affiliated with an Israeli firm, issued a distress call after being boarded by assailants. The destroyer USS Mason responded, along with other ships, demanding the vessel's release. Five armed individuals then fled via a small boat but were captured after a pursuit.
The incident comes amid rising regional tensions since the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza last month. It follows the Houthi rebels' recent capture of another ship linked to an Israeli company in the Red Sea. With the Houthis vowing further seizures and missile strikes on Israeli shipping, the maritime attacks and close calls highlight spiralling risks to commercial vessels traversing tense waters around the Arabian Peninsula. As the U Navy asserts a policing role in the region, shipowners face tough choices on securing high-risk Gulf shipping routes critical to global trade.
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China Partly Eases Rare Mineral Export Curbs
China has partially resumed exports of key minerals like germanium and gallium used in semiconductors and electric vehicles after imposing restrictions this summer. But its export system remains constrained, with traders now needing government licences. But with no reciprocal relaxation by the United States and EU on tech exports to China, Beijing is unlikely to abandon much leverage.
The slight loosening follows talks between Xi and Biden that could ease trade tensions. The fraught mineral supply chains increase focus on alternative sources like Nordic countries, which possess substantial unexploited deposits. The US and its allies have already laid groundwork for securing clean energy materials through initiatives like the Minerals Security Partnership. But studies indicate extraordinary technical and financial cooperation would be needed for US allies to harness their mineral potential enough to reduce dependence on China's exports.
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Israel-EU Row Erupts Over Criticism of Gaza Bombardment
Israel has sparked a diplomatic feud by accusing the leaders of Spain and Belgium of supporting terrorism after they criticized its bombardment of Gaza. The war of words saw Israel's foreign minister condemn the “false claims” of the Spanish and Belgian prime ministers in standing up for Gazan civilians. Spain furiously summoned Israel's ambassador in response while Belgium's PM doubled down during a visit to Gaza.
The spat comes as a temporary Gaza ceasefire enabled Israel to free some Palestinian prisoners while Hamas released hostages. But an unrepentant Israeli minister vowed to resume military operations against Hamas after the truce's four-day expiration. While EU states have condemned Hamas' role in sparking the crisis, the fierce reactions highlight disagreements on pressuring Israel over safeguarding Gazan lives. As Spain has now called for formally recognizing Palestine, the row risks lasting damage to Israel's ties with influential European partners.
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China, Japan, South Korea Foreign Ministers Pledge to Arrange Summit
The foreign ministers of Japan, South Korea and China held their first in-person talks in four years, agreeing to accelerate arranging a trilateral summit. Bilateral tensions have halted the formerly annual leaders' meetings. Beyond restarting high-level cooperation, Japan's foreign minister said the diplomats discussed addressing North Korea's weapons programs and pushing China to play a constructive role with its ally.
The ministerial meeting saw commitments to advance cooperation on security, economic and public health issues. This aims to ease regional tensions amid strengthened ties between the United States, Japan and South Korea that have raised Chinese concerns about coordinated pressure. While a timeline for the delayed trilateral summit remains unclear, the ministers' pledges signal a slight warming of ties between key Southeast Asian powers. But historical disputes still simmer.