In Geopolitics Today: Monday, November 14th
France and the UK Sign New Migrant Crossings Deal, Russian and US Intelligence Chiefs Hold Talks in Turkey, and other stories.
Kazakhstan to Start Using New Oil Export Route in 2023
Kazakhstan is preparing to deliver up to 1.5 million tons of oil through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline in 2023. Prime Minister Alikhan Smailov told reporters that annual shipments via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline will in time reach 6-6.5 million tons.
Smailov said that Kazakhstan’s export route diversification away from Russia will involve two key routes. The first is expected to deliver oil via tanker from the port of Aktau to the Baku-Supsa pipeline on Georgia’s Black Sea Coast, with trains running along the Baku-Batumi railway line. The second will see trains going from the oil-rich region of Atyrau to Uzbekistan and China.
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France and the UK Sign New Migrant Crossings Deal
The interior ministers of France and the United Kingdom have signed an agreement that will see an increase in police patrols in northern France to reduce the number of people crossing the English Channel.
Migrant crossings are a regular source of friction between the two countries. As part of the deal, Britain agreed to pay France another 72.2 million euros, which will go toward funding a 40-percent rise in the number of security forces patrolling France's northern beaches and coast. In addition, teams of observers will be deployed on both sides of the Channel in order to “strengthen common understanding” between the two countries on the issue.
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Russian and US Intelligence Chiefs Hold Talks in Turkey
Talks between the heads of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) of the United States and the SVR foreign intelligence service of Russia are said to have taken place in Turkey. CIA chief William Burns reportedly warned his Russian counterpart of the consequences Russia would face if a nuclear weapon is used in Ukraine.
The high-level meeting between intelligence officials from Russia and the US does not appear to be a response to a specific threat. However, the warning may indicate a genuine concern that Russia could escalate its war with Ukraine via nuclear blackmail following the withdrawal of Russian forces from the west bank of the Dnieper River.
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The Philippines Agrees Truce with Rebel Group
The government of the Philippines and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front have agreed on a ceasefire to end days of clashes after sporadic clashes erupted last week in Ulitan village.
It remains unclear what provoked the fighting, but Manila’s efforts to regulate the flow of firearms to the rebel group may have precipitated violence. The ceasefire was agreed as part of the “decommissioning process” first established in a 2014 peace deal which saw the Moro Islamic Liberation Front drop its secessionist demands.
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The East African Community Announces DRC Peace Talks
As government forces clashed with rebels just north of the city of Goma over the weekend, East African leaders announced peace talks in a bid to stabilise the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
The East African Community has stated that it will hold a dialogue centred on bringing about a peace agreement within eastern DRC on November 21 in the Kenyan capital of Nairobi. DRC government sources have said that its military had engaged the M23 rebel group in Mwaro, a village about 20km (12 miles) north of Goma, which is a major commercial hub of one million people.