In Geopolitics Today: Monday, November 13th
EU Faces Setbacks in Trade Agenda, African Solidarity with Palestine Has Implications for US Diplomacy, and other stories.
Iran and Tajikistan Rebuild Ties for Cooperation
After years of strained relations, Iran and Tajikistan are rebuilding ties as both countries seek closer economic and strategic cooperation. Earlier this month, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi visited Tajikistan, where the two countries signed 19 agreements covering areas like trade, transportation, and energy. This marks a major shift from recent years, when Tajikistan accused Iran of sponsoring terrorism and cracked down on Iranian influence.
The revival of Iranian-Tajik relations could have significant implications in Central Asia. Stronger bilateral cooperation may enable Iran to increase its economic footprint and soft power in the region. For Tajikistan, improved ties with Iran provide a counterbalance to its heavy dependence on Russia. However, closer Iranian ties could complicate Tajikistan's relationship with Saudi Arabia, which recently pledged $100 million for Tajikistan's Roghun dam project. Tajikistan renewed cooperation with Iran is a part of Tajikistan's strategy of maximizing foreign investment and partnerships.
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Strategic Concerns Prompt China to Rapidly Expand Nuclear Arsenal
China is rapidly expanding and modernizing its nuclear arsenal after decades of maintaining a relatively small force. Recent developments include constructing over 300 new ICBM silos, testing a hypersonic glide vehicle, and developing new submarine- and air-launched missiles. The build-up appears driven by China's perception of threatening US nuclear advances that could undermine its assured retaliation strategy.
China's nuclear expansion, though likely intended to boost its second-strike capability, carries risks. More numerous and diverse nuclear forces provide Beijing with more flexibility but also greater temptation for coercion. Adopting launch-on-warning postures could increase dangers from miscalculation. The US response so far, including expanding its own arsenal, will likely intensify the action-reaction cycle fuelling the nuclear arms race. While breakthroughs are unlikely, greater US-China dialogue on how each side's nuclear advances affect the other's threat perceptions may help slow further escalation.
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EU Faces Setbacks in Trade Agenda
The EU's efforts to secure new free trade agreements have hit roadblocks recently. Talks with Australia have collapsed after years of negotiations. A deal with the South American trading bloc Mercosur is also in jeopardy due to disputes over environmental protections. Meanwhile, long-running talks with India and Indonesia remain stalled over issues like palm oil production. The failure to advance these trade pacts is a setback for the EU as it seeks to diversify economic ties beyond China.
The stalled trade deals underscore challenges for the EU's economic strategy, as internal divisions and resistance have stymied progress. Differing interests between German exporters and French farmers in particular have derailed negotiations. Meanwhile, the EU's insistence on environmental conditions is increasingly seen as a form of values-based imperialism by potential trade partners. As emerging powers like India and Indonesia assert themselves more, the EU may lack the leverage it once had. The breakdown in talks shows the difficulty of reconciling varied internal and external interests.
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US Challenges China's Belt and Road in Africa with Lobito Corridor
The United States is investing in a new railway corridor in Africa to counter China's Belt and Road Initiative on the continent. The Lobito Corridor project will connect mineral-rich regions in the DRC and Zambia to the Angolan port of Lobito, establishing a western route for resources key to renewable energy. The railway aims to boost ties with African nations and provide an alternative to China's infrastructure footprint.
The duelling infrastructure projects highlight intensifying US-China competition in Africa. China's BRI has established its influence across the continent, but its slowing investments create openings for Washington. The US railway represents renewed American commitment to Africa, though overcoming China's entrenched presence poses hurdles. Meanwhile, African nations seek maximum benefit from their resources and partnerships. The success of either power's development agenda depends on building local trust and delivering tangible economic gains. With its strategic location and resources, Africa is poised to shape global dynamics.
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African Solidarity with Palestine Has Implications for US Diplomacy
The ongoing Israeli military campaign in Gaza has galvanized sympathy for Palestinians across much of Africa. African governments have largely condemned Israel's actions at the UN and in statements, with some even recalling diplomats. This despite Israel's recent diplomatic overtures on the continent. Mass pro-Palestinian protests have also occurred, though some African regimes remain cautious about permitting them domestically.
The crisis underscores challenges the US faces diplomatically with African states. Washington's unqualified support for Israel contradicts its rhetoric about universal values and a rules-based order. This may hinder US efforts to gain African backing on issues like Ukraine, as many Africans feel their own conflicts are being ignored. Growing African solidarity with Palestine poses long-term hurdles for the US in expanding influence on the continent amid shifting geopolitical alignments. Managing ties with both Israel and African partners will require nuanced diplomacy.
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Indonesia and the United States Begin Rare Earth Alliance Talks
The US and Indonesia have begun preliminary discussions on a potential partnership on electric vehicle metals and minerals, especially nickel. As the world's top nickel producer, Indonesia aims to capitalize on surging EV demand. For the US, the deal could reduce dependence on China for critical battery materials. The talks come as both countries seek to position themselves strategically.
A US-Indonesia agreement on EV minerals would have significant geopolitical implications. It would strengthen US ties with the key Southeast Asian nation, and work to bolster broader efforts to contain China. Meanwhile, Indonesia can leverage its mineral resources for economic and diplomatic gain. However, China's established ties in Indonesian mining present a challenge for the US. A deal will need to balance economic priorities with ecological stewardship. As the EV market grows exponentially, competition over battery materials is poised to shape global supply chains and partnerships.