In Geopolitics Today - Monday, October 25th
Sudan’s Military Seizes Power and ICJ Rules on Kenya-Somalia Maritime Dispute
Sudan’s Military Seizes Power
For over a month, the joint military and civilian government of Sudan has been on a civil war footing. Both sides have blamed each other for their country’s difficulties, with their relationship marred by mistrust since the transitional government was first established in 2019. But following a failed coup last month, there now appears little chance of a political solution to the crisis which has gripped the country. Mistrust between the two sides of Sudan's government has been impossible to bridge, and has now culminated in the arrest and dissolution of the civilian government.
Sudan’s military leader, General Abdel Fattah Al Burhan, has declared a state of emergency across Sudan as he dissolved the transitional cabinet and sovereign council. General al-Burhan announced his faction intends to install a technocratic transitional government which will lead the country to elections expected to take place in July 2023. In effect, the military will be taking control of Sudan’s government, while al-Burhan assured his audience that Sudan’s military will continue “completing the democratic transition” until such a time when elections can be held. The military closed Khartoum’s airport and some of the city’s roads and bridges, while also shutting down internet traffic, and raiding both the television and the radio headquarters.
Instability across Sudan is a possibility, as pro-democracy groups are calling on supporters to take to the streets. Conflict in Sudan would also have a significant impact on the region as a whole, as the country already grapples with a wide array of national security problems. Sudan has a border dispute with its eastern neighbour Ethiopia, and both are also at odds over the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Nile that has sparked a diplomatic crisis. Furthermore, if Sudan begins to unravel, it risks leaving a vacuum for extremist groups that could spill over into other states. Prolonged violence could even send another migration wave north, where a multitude of countries would come under increased pressure.
Read more about this story here.
ICJ Rules on Kenya-Somalia Maritime Dispute
Earlier this month, the United Nations' main court for dispute settlement between countries, the International Court of Justice (ICJ), ruled on a contentious case. Kenya and Somalia have been embroilied in a longstanding dispute over the rights to parts of the Indian Ocean just off their countries’ coasts. Somalia — which brought the case to the ICJ in the first place — has happily accepted the judgement, while Kenya has continued to dispute the authority of the court and outright rejected the ruling. Lacking any enforcement mechanisms, the ICJ ruling will lack any substance as Kenya intends to ignore the court’s decision for now.
The dispute between Kenya and Somalia revolves around overlapping maritime claims. Kenya has repeatedly claimed that the boundary between the two countries' maritime zones runs straight east along a line of latitude, while Somalia argues its sovereign right to a boundary running roughly perpendicular away from the coast, equally distant from each country's nearest land. The dispute extends to conflicting claims over the two countries' exclusive economic zones (EEZ) and continental shelf. In its final judgment, the ICJ drew a new boundary to separate Kenya and Somalia's maritime zones, and largely took Somalia's side while offering minor concessions to Kenya.
As Kenya has repeatedly expressed reservations about the authority of the ICJ in making the ruling, and has refused the ratify the decision domestically, the ruling does little to change realities on the ground. While the ICJ insists that its judgment is final and legally binding, and Somalia has, unsurprisingly, already accepted the judgement, the rejection of the decision by Kenya will work to block its effective implementation. The decision by the ICJ largely borrowed from previous rulings modelled on the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, so the ruling over Kenyan and Somalian maritime claims will strengthen Somalia’s position. But for now, it remains a dispute that remains unsolved in practice.
Read more about this story here.