In Geopolitics Today: Monday, October 23rd
Chinese and Philippine Ships Collide Near Disputed Shoal, US Eases Sanctions on Venezuela's Oil and Gold Sectors, and other stories.
Turkey Walks Diplomatic Tightrope Amid Hamas-Israel Conflict
Turkey is navigating a delicate balancing act in response to the latest Hamas-Israel violence. Ankara has long supported the Palestinian cause but has recently sought to improve ties with Israel. While advocating for Palestinians, Turkey has notably cooled relations with Hamas, politely asking leaders to leave and restraining inflammatory language. Despite Western preferences, Ankara is unlikely to fully cut ties with Hamas given differing perspectives.
Turkey's calibrated stance reveals its broader regional realignment. With decreasing domestic support for Palestinian militancy, Ankara has muted its tone against Israel. Energy cooperation and Gulf reconciliation have also tempered Turkey's more activist regional policies. Though still seeking a mediating role, Ankara realizes strong US and EU ties require adjusting its Middle East posture. How far Turkey goes in distancing from Hamas remains uncertain. For now, it is cautiously balancing alliance relationships, public opinion, and economic interests amid a volatile conflict.
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Chinese and Philippine Ships Collide Near Disputed Shoal
Tensions escalated in the South China Sea after Chinese ships collided with Philippine vessels near the disputed Second Thomas Shoal. In two separate incidents, a Chinese coast guard ship and maritime militia vessel made contact with Philippine coast guard and supply ships. The Philippines condemned China's "dangerous" actions during a resupply mission to Philippine troops. But China blamed the Philippines, claiming trespass and dangerous manoeuvring.
The collisions follow a pattern of increasingly assertive maritime patrols conducted by both Chinese and the Philippine vessels. The incidents underscore the risks of miscalculation as rival claims overlap in the strategic waterway. China's blockade attempts have provoked particularly close encounters. With both sides committed to resolutely dispute each other’s maritime claims, further accidental clashes are likely. As US allies like the Philippines push back against Chinese pressure, stability depends on restraint by all parties. Diplomacy may be needed to develop crisis management and de-escalation mechanisms. Unless rules of the road emerge, the South China Sea will continue to be a flashpoint that threats a wider conflict.
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Gazprom to Increase Natural Gas Exports to Hungary and China
Russia's Gazprom will increase natural gas exports to Hungary and China this winter, according to CEO Alexei Miller. Gazprom aims to compensate for losing European markets. Hungary has maintained ties with Russia despite EU tensions. China is now Gazprom's largest export market, thanks in large part to the Power of Siberia pipelines. The extra supplies come as Russia builds economic links with Eastern partners.
Gazprom's outreach spotlights Moscow's “Pivot East” in response to sanctions. Securing alternative markets is vital for Russia's energy revenues, which account for a large part of the state's budget. For recipients like Hungary, reliable energy access trumps politics. China gains leverage as an essential Gazprom customer as well. The reshuffling energy flows demonstrate Russia's resilience but also China's growing influence. As economic blocs solidify amid geopolitical rivalry, energy interdependence is rebalancing power dynamics.
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Canada Withdraws Diplomats from India Over Immunity Dispute
Tensions between Canada and India have escalated over a dispute about diplomatic immunity, resulting in Canada withdrawing two-thirds of its diplomats from India. This comes after Canada accused Indian government agents of assassinating a Sikh separatist leader in British Columbia. India then moved to revoke immunity for Canada's diplomats by a deadline, which Canada called unreasonable.
The unravelling diplomatic relations have come about quickly after the assassination allegation was made by Canada. With India revoking immunity, Canada faces a dilemma in protecting its diplomats without retaliation. The row will likely further strain visa processing and consular services, causing headaches for citizens. As both sides harden stances, rebuilding trust looks difficult. The spat shows how diaspora grievances can spill over and jeopardize broader bilateral relations. With strong trade and personal links, however, incentives exist to contain the fallout.
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China Agrees to Remove Tariffs on Australian Wine Imports
Australia and China have reached an agreement to end tariffs on Australian wine exports, signalling a thaw in relations. The tariffs were imposed during diplomatic tensions over issues like Huawei. With the deal, Australian wine may soon resume flows to its former top export market. It follows similar moves by China to ease restrictions on Australian coal and barley imports.
The breakthrough comes as Australian PM Anthony Albanese prepares for a visit to China next month. The incremental easing of Australian trade curbs reveals Beijing's pragmatism amid strained ties with the West. While political differences persist, China's economic interests encourage compartmentalizing certain disputes. For Australia, securing market access remains vital given China's importance. Bilateral engagement may now expand, but rebuilding deeper trust requires resolving more contentious issues. As both sides balance priorities, economic links could drive a broader stabilization of relations.
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US Eases Sanctions on Venezuela's Oil and Gold Sectors
The United States has eased some sanctions on Venezuela's oil and gold sectors after the government resumed electoral talks with the opposition. Washington issued licences authorizing transactions with Venezuela's energy industry and lifted a ban on trading certain sovereign bonds. The concessions follow a deal to hold presidential elections in 2024 with the presence of international observers. Washington still warns it could reverse course if commitments aren't met.
The move aims to boost global oil supply amid high prices. The limited sanctions relief underscores US pragmatism on Venezuela amid strained energy markets. While not recognizing the Maduro government, economic imperatives have pushed Washington to negotiate. If reforms proceed, further easing could continue. But mistrust persists on both sides. With its oil leverage, Caracas will try to extract maximum concessions. For sustainable progress, competitive elections and restored democracy are essential. The path ahead remains uncertain for US-Venezuela relations.