In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, October 20th
Secrecy Shrouds Investigations into the Nord Stream Pipeline Explosions, Russia Degrades Ukrainian Water and Power Infrastructure, and other stories.
The EU to Sanction Iran over Drone Deliveries to Russia
The European Union has agreed on a new set of sanctions against Iran, justified as retaliation over Tehran’s decision to supply drones to Russia for use in Ukraine. After 3 days of talks, EU ambassadors came to an agreement that will sanction those Iranian entities directly associated with supplying Iranian drones to Russia.
Iranian drone systems are stressing Ukraine's air defences, providing Moscow a cheap alternative to using airpower for destroying targets. The sanctions imposed by Brussels target Shahed Aviation Industries and three Iranian armed forces generals. The EU announcement added that the bloc was also prepared to extend sanctions against four other Iranian entities already on the sanctioned list. Iran continues to deny supplying the drones to Russia, while Russia has denied using Iranian drones in Ukraine.
Read more about this story here.
Secrecy Shrouds Investigations into the Nord Stream Pipeline Explosions
Baltic Sea states conducting investigations into the recent explosions affecting the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pipelines have so far failed to bring about any new information about the incidents. Sweden has opted out of a joint investigation with Denmark and Germany, and all have categorically rejected the establishment of a joint investigation team due to “confidentiality” concerns.
The German government has so far refused to provide any information on the state of the investigation of the attack on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines on the basis of “secrecy interests.” The German government has said that no information of the incident can be provided to the public for reasons of “welfare of the state.” With credible information that warships were present near the site in question, a disinterest by some Baltic Sea states divulge in any form of information of the investigations complicates Russia’s ability to respond to the acts of sabotage.
Read more about this story here.
Turkey Tests New Short-Range Ballistic Missile
Turkey has test-fired a new short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) over the Black Sea. The Tayfun SRBM developed by Roketsan was test-fired from a mobile launcher in the city of Rize, with reports suggesting the missile travelled a distance of 350 miles before crashing off the coast of the Black Sea port of Sinop.
That distance travelled by the new missile is twice the range of the current ballistic missiles in the Turkish arsenal, or at least the known ones. The system is likely at first to principally serve domestic needs before Ankara chooses whether to export the Tayfun system. The program's origins go back to the 1990s when Turkey reached a deal with China, allowing it to produce Chinese B-611 missiles under license. When taking geostrategic, technological, cost, and foreign policy calculations into consideration, the optimum range bracket for Turkey's ballistic missiles appears to be roughly 800 kilometres.
Read more about this story here.
Russia Degrades Ukrainian Water and Power Infrastructure
Ukraine is now facing nationwide disruptions to electricity supplies as rolling blackouts become the norm due to extensive damage to the country’s power infrastructure. As a result, Ukrainian officials have sought to restrict the limited supplies in order to allow energy companies to repair power facilities.
Russian attacks, carried out with cruise missiles and suicide drones, have knocked out roughly 30% of the Ukraine’s power plants. Energy facilities were struck and damaged across Ukraine, with a major coal-fired power station in the city of Burshtyn in western Ukraine suffering damage. The Burshtyn thermal power station supplies electricity to three regions and 5 million consumers. The destruction of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure will slow down Ukrainian advances and limit the speed of reinforcements in the near-term if the strikes manage to disrupt rail transfers.