In Geopolitics Today: Monday, October 16th
Talks to Open Aid Corridor into Gaza Ineffective, Bulgaria Raises Transit Fees of Balkan Stream Pipeline, and other stories here.
Russia Imposes Restrictions on Japanese Seafood Imports
Russia has announced restrictions on Japanese seafood imports in response to treated wastewater releases from the damaged Fukushima nuclear plant. Moscow claims it is a precautionary measure until safety can be verified. But Japan strongly protests the move as scientifically baseless. Only a small fraction of Japan's seafood exports go to Russia, so the move may have little effect besides a symbolic policy alignment between Moscow and Beijing.
The episode shows how Fukushima remains a diplomatic fault line. Despite the assurances of the International Atomic Energy Agency, China and now Russia politicize safety concerns over nuclear-contaminated water. Japan exported an estimated 280 million yen of marine products to Russia last year, about 0.1% of Tokyo's total marine exports. Tuna accounted for the largest share at 120 million yen, followed by oysters at 40 million yen and pollock at 30 million yen.
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Kuwait Seeking to Boost Local Oil Production
Kuwait aims to significantly ramp up its oil production capacity to 3.15 million barrels per day in the next 4 years, from current output of 2.7 million. It also plans to boost gas output by 70% in the timeframe. This is supported by over $400 billion in investments by state oil company KPC to raise oil production to 4 million barrels by 2035. Kuwait is bucking the global shift from hydrocarbons by betting big on oil and gas. It awarded $3.25 billion in energy contracts this year as new projects come online.
Kuwait believes it can tap its vast reserves to become a major supplier before peak oil demand. Kuwait's production targets would bolster its position in OPEC ahead of rivals like Iran. Pumping at capacity can fill supply gaps as sanctions-hit Russian output to global energy markets falls. However, the plans contradict global decarbonization goals. Kuwait's Gulf neighbours are balancing hydrocarbons with renewables. But Kuwait is betting big on long-term oil demand, using its resources for economic gain while it can. This strategy aims to secure geopolitical and economic leverage in maximizing oil and gas production in coming decades.
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Talks to Open Aid Corridor into Gaza Ineffective
Efforts to allow humanitarian aid into Gaza and provide exit for foreign nationals amid the Israel-Hamas conflict have stalled. Egypt is reluctant to open borders to Palestinian refugees. Israel opposes letting in aid without a favourable ceasefire deal. With Gaza blockaded and bombarded, the UN warns of a growing crisis. Israel has ordered Gaza civilians to evacuate but maintains restrictions.
Attempts by the US and others to broker arrangements for aid and safe passage have made little progress so far. Without cooperation, Gaza faces catastrophe, especially if Israel moves forward with an invasion of Gaza. For Egypt, refugee flows could be destabilizing. With civilians suffering, urgency mounts for creative solutions to address immediate needs while also satisfying Israel's security concerns. If the violence continues unabated, pressure will grow on outside powers to intervene more forcefully.
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UAE and Turkey Strengthen Defence Industry Partnership
The UAE's Edge Group and Turkey's SAHA Istanbul defence association have signed multiple framework agreements to enhance defence industry cooperation between the two countries. This builds on recent political reconciliation between Ankara and Abu Dhabi. The two sides aim to identify joint projects and leverage each other's supply chains and technology.
The defence industry partnerships reflect strengthening UAE-Turkey ties and ambitions. For Turkey, it taps into the UAE's rising defence capabilities and funding. For the UAE, it provides access to Turkey's skilled defence manufacturing base. While partly economic, wider geopolitical realignments are also at play. As rivals like Iran expand influence, Abu Dhabi and Ankara find mutual interest in security collaboration. However, historical tensions could still resurface to complicate this bilateral defence-sector cooperation moving forward.
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Bulgaria Raises Transit Fees of Balkan Stream Pipeline
Bulgaria has imposed steep transit fees on Russian gas passing to Serbia and Hungary via the Balkan Stream pipeline. The raised transit fees have already drawn strong criticism from Belgrade and Budapest. Serbian President Vucic protested the fee hike, saying it would drastically raise gas costs. Hungary also called the fees unacceptable. Bulgaria says it independently sets transit tariffs.
The move aims to curb Russian revenue, but could strain regional ties and energy security. The diplomatic disagreements highlight the complex repercussions of European energy politics. Steps targeting Russia risk blowback on economies dependent on its natural gas. Serbia and Hungary are attempting to shield themselves from volatility. But Bulgaria is under pressure to align with the EU to counter Russia. Navigating these divides will test the regional diplomacy of leaders like Vucic.
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Philippines Expands Military Bases with US Assistance
The Philippines under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is rapidly expanding military cooperation with the United States, upgrading bases under their defence pact. This includes facilities close to the South China Sea and Taiwan, raising concerns in Beijing. Marcos Jr. insists bases are defensive, but admits they could assist in potential Taiwan contingencies.
Expanded US-Philippine defence collaboration aims to strengthen deterrence amid growing Chinese capabilities in relation to Taiwan and in the South China Sea. But this risks further antagonizing Beijing. Careful messaging will likely accompany the expansion of military bases to avoid fuelling perceptions in Beijing that bases represent a threatening posture against China. Nevertheless, bolstered military ties reflect Philippines' pragmatic balancing between its US alliance and desire for good China relations.