In Geopolitics Today: Monday, October 17th
The EU Calls on Member States to Take Tougher Stance on China, Iranian Threat Perceptions in the Southeast Caucasus, and other stories.
The EU Calls on Member States to Take Tougher Stance on China
The European Union's office for foreign relations has reportedly advised EU member states to take a tougher stance on China and start seeing the country as a competitor. The office addressed the EU’s dependence on China for semiconductors and rare-earth metals as a “strategic vulnerability” of particular concern, calling for ways to do away with trade with China.
While individual EU countries will likely continue to seek positive relations with China, growing pressure from Washington and Brussels will accelerate efforts across the bloc to diversify their supply chains away from China. This pressure will likely be accompanied by opportunities to expand trade relations elsewhere, with non-Chinese markets in Asia expected to serve as alternatives for the US and its allies moving forward. The EU will discuss its strategy toward Beijing at a summit later this month, with discussions likely to involve many of the threats noted in the new US national security strategy recently published by the White House.
Read more about this story here.
India Successfully Test Submarine-launched Ballistic Missile
India has successfully tested a nuclear-capable ballistic missile from its domestically-built nuclear-powered submarine INS Arihant. The successful test signals India’s readiness to deploy a functional nuclear triad as Indian officials declared having an “assured retaliatory capability” as a “credible minimum deterrence” against a first strike by an adversary.
This is the first time that of a submarine launched ballistic missile (SLBM) test has been announced by the Indian government. While the ministry did not disclose which missile was fired, some reports suggest it was the K-15. India is currently working on a nearly 5,000-kilometre range SLBM missile called the K-5, and is now among six countries to have the capability to fire a nuclear missile from land, air and undersea.
Read more about this story here.
Germany as a US Military Command Hub in the European Theatre
The United States is preparing to set create a new command centre in Wiesbaden-Erbenheim, Germany. According to reports, the final decision on the command’s establishment is imminent. It will integrate all current structures, also including multinational structures, involved in direct military support for Ukraine.
The US armed forces would thus operate its forces within a Germany that is a hub for all NATO military activities in Eastern and South-eastern Europe. The US Special Operations Command Europe (SOCEUR) headquartered in Stuttgart-Vaihingen have formulated the Resistance Operating Concept (ROC), a strategy focused on conducting underground warfare against occupying troops. The command centre will reportedly work to apply strategies in the region which integrate the civilian population into combat roles.
Read more about this story here.
Iranian Threat Perceptions in the Southeast Caucasus
Iran’s border with Armenia may be the country’s shortest, yet it is the most strategically significant. Tehran’s reactions to the Second Karabakh War illustrate Tehran’s concerns over the Zangezur Corridor, a strategic strip of land that Azerbaijan is now well positioned to threaten.
Because Turkey and Armenia are upstream countries of the Aras river basin, while Iran and Azerbaijan are downstream countries, the capture of parts of Syunik Province along the Zangezur Corridor could leave Iran as the only downstream country, one with limited control over the water supply. More broadly, Iran also has concerns about geopolitical changes resulting from Azerbaijan’s victory and the balance of power in the region. Tehran recognizes the roles of Turkey, Israel, the United States and NATO as influential backers of Azerbaijan, presenting a persistent threat to Iranian interests in the region.