In Geopolitics Today - Monday, September 6th
Kazakhstan Working to Build Framework To Tackle Regional Water Issues and Guinean Special Forces Stage a Coup
Kazakhstan Working to Build Framework To Tackle Regional Water Issues
The legacy left behind by the Soviet Union in Central Asia remains in evidence to this day. In particular, the region still experiences a shortage of water that is directly related to the many dams and irrigation projects undertaken by the Soviet Union. Soviet authorities constructed dams and manipulated river flow in an attempt to develop massive irrigation systems for specialised industries.
Many of these undertakings have led to widespread desertification and a drastic reduction to the availability of water in the Aral Sea. Independence from the Soviet Union has not brought water security to the countries of Central Asia, and water continues to heavily influence regional geopolitics.
Conflict over water is perhaps the most pressing point of tensions between the countries of Central Asia. Diplomatic efforts to avoid a repeat of the “water wars” between upstream Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan and downstream Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan have gone some way toward preventing outright conflict over water between certain actors, but nonetheless water remains a catalyst for a potential conflict
Kazakhstan has been the most fervent advocate for a diplomatic solution to regional water woes. The country has worked hard to salvage the deteriorating situation in the Aral Sea, and the Kazakhstani government is interested in protecting its ecosystem to boost development in eco-tourism and other sectors. During a recent summit held on August 6th, President Tokayev proposed the creation of a regional working group of ministers which would conduct dialogue in pursuit of mutually beneficial solutions. This proposed consortium would “coordinate the interests of all countries in the region in the fields of hydropower, irrigation and ecology.”
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Guinean Special Forces Stage a Coup
Guinean special forces have seized power in the country via a military coup, arresting the president, dissolving the country’s constitution and imposing a curfew. Members of the coup made promises to change the political makeup of country following the imposition of a curfew "until further notice." The special operations forces responsible for the coup also announced a meeting of cabinet ministers and other top officials, threatening them with a warning that “any refusal to attend will be considered a rebellion.”
Guinea, while a country whose people are among the poorest in the world, is a major producer of bauxite. The country produced roughly 77.8 million tons of bauxite in 2020, representing 21.8% of the global bauxite supply. Therefore, the production and export of bauxite from Guinea, which is a primary ore used in the production of aluminium, serves a critical part of the global supply of commonly used aluminium. Given that China is the largest trade partner to Guinea, and more specifically that China’s aluminium industry is heavily dependent on Guinean bauxite exports, unrest in Guinea has the potential to severely disrupt Chinese access to a critical resource.
Whatever the motivations of the actors behind the coup, the international response by leading powers has largely taken the shape of condemnation. The US State Department said the putsch could "limit" Washington's ability to support Guinea. Moscow too condemned the attempt at unconstitutional change of leadership, as did Beijing. In the region, the African Union (AU) also condemned the takeover and demanded the liberation of Condé. But for China, the coup in Guinea will be a challenge to overcome, and a serious test which will test the country’s ability to protect its overseas interests.
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