In Geopolitics Today: Monday, September 4th
Afghanistan's Qosh Tepa Irrigation Canal Project Concerns Neighbours, China and Nicaragua Sign Free Trade Agreement, and other stories.
Afghanistan's Qosh Tepa Irrigation Canal Project Concerns Neighbours
Afghanistan is making substantial progress on the Qosh Tepa Irrigation Canal, a $670 million project aiming to irrigate 550,000 hectares of land by diverting water from the Amu Darya River. The canal, initially planned in the 1970s, has been resumed by the Taliban, who claim it will enhance food security in northern Afghanistan. This project has raised concerns in neighbouring Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, as it could result in a 15% reduction of irrigation water from the Amu Darya, potentially impacting their cotton industry and water-stressed regions.
The Central Asian republics face a challenging situation, given Afghanistan's position as the head of the watercourse and its non-signatory status to international water-sharing agreements. Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan's concerns are justified, as any disruption in the flow of the Amu Darya River can significantly affect their economies and water-stressed regions. However, there is an opportunity for dialogue through the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination of Central Asia. The engagement of the Taliban with Central Asian republics could provide an opportunity to address these concerns and promote stability. Discussions could introduce regional governance structures and address water-related concerns.
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EU Announces New Military Mission in West Africa
The European Union (EU) is set to launch a new military mission in West Africa, targeting the northern regions of Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, and Benin along the Gulf of Guinea. This decision comes in the context of ongoing instability in the Sahel region, where EU states, led by France, have struggled to make substantial gains in their counterterrorism efforts for nearly a decade. France's recent withdrawal from Mali and Burkina Faso, along with uncertainties surrounding their presence in Niger, has prompted the EU to establish a military presence in West Africa to prevent a complete abandonment of the Sahel region.
However, the effectiveness of this new EU mission remains uncertain given the historical challenges European countries and the EU have faced in the Sahel. The mission's initial focus is on training and advising local security forces in the four West African countries, with the goal of conducting operations. The mission is expected to launch in October, and the actual number of deployed personnel is yet to be determined. The EU's decision to expand its military presence is an attempt to address evolving security and supply chain challenges, as well as a means to ensure a continued foothold in a region of strategic importance. However, the success of this mission will depend on various factors, including the cooperation of local governments, the ability to effectively counter militants, and the EU's capacity to contribute meaningfully to stability.
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Japan and UK Form Strategic Partnership to Secure Critical Minerals
Japan and the United Kingdom are forging a strategic partnership to invest in critical minerals and enhance economic security, marking a significant development in their bilateral relations. The two nations plan to cooperate in developing mines, especially in mineral-rich African regions like Zambia, Congo, Mali, and Ghana, to diversify their supply sources for essential minerals used in technologies like electric vehicles and wind power.
This move not only addresses their mineral dependency on countries like China but also aims to counter growing Chinese influence in Africa, which has been investing heavily in the continent's resources and infrastructure. Additionally, Japan and the UK are exploring the creation of an early-detection mechanism for shortages in critical goods, such as semiconductors and storage batteries, to better prepare for supply chain disruptions. This strategic partnership underscores evolving regional dynamics, where countries are seeking to secure critical resources and protect their economic interests while responding to China's growing power in international affairs.
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China and Nicaragua Sign Free Trade Agreement
China and Nicaragua have signed a comprehensive free trade agreement (FTA), marking a significant milestone in their economic relationship. This FTA, which contains 22 chapters and 15 annexes, encompasses trade in goods, cross-border services, investment, rules, and other fields. Notably, over 95 percent of traded goods will eventually receive zero-tariff status, with around 60 percent benefiting from immediate zero-tariff treatment.
The signing of this FTA underscores Nicaragua's efforts to diversify its economic partnerships and reduce reliance on the United States. While it's unlikely to lead to a substantial increase in trade, it opens doors for Chinese investment in Nicaraguan infrastructure projects and special economic zones. This move also highlights China's ongoing economic expansion into Latin America and the Caribbean. However, Nicaragua's strong economic ties with China may continue to pose challenges, including the possibility of US sanctions.
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Small Modular Nuclear Reactor Design Approved in the US
Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) hold the promise of revolutionizing the nuclear energy landscape, offering advantages like simplified design, safety features, and potential cost savings. However, despite growing interest in nuclear energy driven by climate and energy crises, the commercial deployment of SMRs has been delayed.
The approval of NuScale Power's SMR design by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission marks a significant step, but there are several challenges to overcome. Licensing processes, harmonization of regulations globally, and economic competitiveness compared to renewables remain key issues. While SMRs could play a role in the long-term transition to net-zero emissions, their contribution will be delayed, potentially making them less competitive in the short term against rapidly deployable renewable technologies like solar and wind.
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Persistent Engagement as a New Paradigm in Cyber Warfare
Cyber warfare has evolved significantly in recent years, leading to the emergence of new strategies like “persistent engagement” or active defence. This approach allows proactive cyber actions to neutralize threats before they materialize, marking a shift away from the traditional deterrence paradigm. In many ways, persistent engagement has become a necessary response to the dynamic and non-attributable nature of cyberspace threats.
This shift from deterrence to persistent engagement was prompted by the shortcomings of the former, which failed to deter a growing volume of cyber threats. The unique characteristics of cyberspace, such as non-attribution and the blurring of state sovereignty, required a new approach. While persistent engagement has its flaws and raises concerns about international norms, it has been largely accepted by Western intelligence agencies. However, its long-term implications and how it may align with or challenge the strategic visions of countries like China and Russia remain open questions in the evolving landscape of cyber warfare.