In Geopolitics Today: Monday, September 18th
Sahel States Forge Mutual Defence Alliance, Israeli-Saudi Normalization Stalls, and other stories.
Sahel States Forge Mutual Defence Alliance
Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have formed a significant mutual defence alliance called the Alliance of Sahel States. The pact allows the nations to provide military assistance to each other against armed rebellion or external aggression. All three countries have undergone military coups recently and struggled to contain escalating Islamic insurgencies in the shared tri-border Liptako-Gourma region.
The new Sahel alliance represents a show of autonomy from former colonial power France, which has withdrawn troops after relations soured amid the coups. As the regional bloc ECOWAS continues threatening intervention in Niger over its latest coup, the defence pact displays joint resistance to external interference. However, with instability and militant attacks still plaguing the area, the alliance's viability will depend on its ability to tangibly improve security across the region. Its longer-term geopolitical impact remains uncertain, given the complex dynamics and fragility facing the Sahel. But the agreement reveals shifting alignments as the region seeks greater self-sufficiency in the face of insurgencies and foreign friction.
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The Evolving Logistics Underpinning Indo-Pacific Security
Recent joint exercises between the US, Japan, and Australia spotlight their efforts to enhance logistical coordination across the vast Indo-Pacific. With the region's immense distances and scattered land masses, the ability to swiftly transport personnel, matériel, and supplies is critical for military readiness. The US and Japan have been practicing loading and moving equipment between ships. This supports US plans to disperse forces more widely across Pacific islands. Rotating landing craft through Australia also aids flexible regional deployments. Meanwhile, Japan is acquiring new helicopters better suited for transport missions.
Enhanced logistics cooperation allows the US and its allies to sustain operations across the western Pacific. Island bases help project power and monitor Chinese movements, but require extensive resupply. However, significant obstacles remain. The tyranny of distance still hampers reactions to contingencies. Supply lines across the eastern Indo-Pacific are tenuous, with limited airlift and sea-lift. Infrastructure on remote Pacific islands is modest. The Indo-Pacific's sheer scale complicates power projection. But the growing logistics cooperation between the US, Japan, Australia and other allies aims to underpin a flexible, resilient force posture. This evolving architecture will be critical if the region's security environment deteriorates.
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Israeli-Saudi Normalization Stalls
Hopes for normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia have hit roadblocks as PM Netanyahu balances domestic politics and international demands. Netanyahu rhetorically supports the Palestinian Authority to facilitate Saudi ties. But his far-right coalition partners oppose a strengthened PA. Netanyahu is constrained from providing substantial aid or concessions by disagreements within his fractious government.
With Saudi Arabia and the US pushing for tangible progress in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process as a condition for deeper ties, Netanyahu's political predicament has stymied concessions. He risks his coalition's survival if he helps the PA significantly. But inaction on the Palestinian front has stalled momentum toward the long-sought diplomatic prize of normalization with Riyadh. Netanyahu's ambitions for breakthroughs with Saudi Arabia and the wider Arab world are colliding with the complex realities of his domestic politics and coalition. For now, substantial progress appears elusive.
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The Papacy Concludes Visit to Mongolia
Pope Francis recently concluded a four-day visit to Mongolia, marking his 43rd foreign journey since becoming Pope. During this visit, he articulated his vision for the role of the Catholic Church in relations with national governments and other faiths. Additionally, the Pope elevated Giorgio Marengo, a prominent figure in the Roman Catholic Church in Mongolia, who shares his vision.
The Pope's visit to Mongolia was primarily focused on establishing a more open agreement with China. However, this objective faces challenges, as China has recently cracked down on the autonomy of the Catholic Church within its borders, straining the 2018 accord between the Vatican and Beijing. The Pope's diplomatic efforts with Russia were also highlighted during the visit, but Moscow remains reluctant to fully engage. Pope Francis is working to shape the future of the Catholic Church, particularly in Asia, by appointing cardinals who share his vision of a more tolerant and non-Western Catholicism. This broader vision could have a lasting impact on the church's engagement with other faiths and governments.
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Europe's Energy Prices Stabilize Before Winter
Europe is poised to avoid a major surge in energy prices this winter thanks to record natural gas storage levels and reduced consumption. Despite recent supply concerns like strikes in Australia and Norway, Europe's storage buffers, lower industrial gas demand, and mild weather have helped stabilize prices. In response, European gas prices have fallen, easing fears about potential disruptions.
Efforts by EU member states to diversify energy sources and fill gas inventories early have contributed to price stability so far. However, recent volatility shows Europe's gas markets remain vulnerable. As the heating season kicks off, prices are expected to rise gradually but stay below last winter's extremes. Still, the global LNG market stays tight, and shocks could prompt spikes with economic and political implications. Variables like cold snaps or supply troubles could pose challenges. And even full storage can only cover a portion of winter demand.
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China's Growing Influence in Georgia and the South Caucasus
China's deepening ties with Georgia signify its increasing economic and geopolitical interest in the South Caucasus region. Through major investments and infrastructure projects like the Middle Corridor, China aims to expand its regional connectivity and influence. This has wider implications for geopolitical dynamics in the area. China's presence provides an alternative to reliance on Russia and Western powers like the EU and US. It also promotes China's model of state-driven economic development.
For Georgia, closer ties with China have trade benefits but also risks. Becoming economically dependent on China could make Georgia vulnerable to pressure from Beijing. For the West, China's advance into the region represents a challenge to its interests. Competition with China could increase in the areas of infrastructure development and trade routes. The South Caucasus is a strategic crossroads between Europe and Asia. China's growing foothold in Georgia and the wider region signals its intention to play a larger role in Eurasian geopolitics and global affairs. It remains to be seen how major powers like the US, Russia and EU will respond to this tectonic shift in the regional order.