In Geopolitics Today - Monday, September 13th
Zapad-2021 Military Exercise Begins and India’s Foreign Policy at a Crossroads in Afghanistan
Zapad 2021 Military Exercise Begins
The 2021 edition of the Zapad military exercise kicked off over the weekend as a coalition of countries conducted mock operations at fourteen practice ranges across Russia and Belarus. Armenia, Belarus, India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Mongolia, all brought together their forces as they begun the main phase of the joint strategic exercise in Nizhny Novgorod. Zapad — Russian for “west”— is part of a rotating cycle of quadrennial drills scheduled to conclude on September 16th.
The drills are said to involve as many as 12,800 Russian and Belarusian personnel, and will include up to 140 tanks, 110 artillery systems, as well as numerous rocket launchers, fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters. The first phase will see the Belarusian and Russian forces closely coordinate their mobilisation and deployment actions in a scenario simulating the opening days of a NATO invasion. The second phase then involves utilising the full spectrum of Russian countermeasures to degrade and defeat the hypothetical NATO offensive.
These large-scale exercises have seen the deployment of unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) such as the Uran-9. The Uran-9 and Nerekhta robots were for the first time being used within regular forces formations at the Zapad-2021 military exercise. These UGVs are said to have been used for clearing minefields in tandem with engineering units, and were supported by a Karyer laser tactical system which detects and suppresses the reconnaissance and observation equipment of tanks, armoured vehicles and infantry firearms. And though unconfirmed, the upcoming drills may even include the S-400 missile defence systems.
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India’s Foreign Policy at a Crossroads in Afghanistan
India has for years put its faith and confidence in the former Ashraf Ghani Afghan government while rivals China and Pakistan made overtures toward the Taliban. The result today looks to mean that India’s rivals are now certain to advance their interests and influence the country, while New Delhi will be left out in the cold, forced to make some clear-eyed choices with the Taliban now in power. The choice of whether or not to recognise the Taliban will define the kind of relationship India can enjoy in Afghanistan.
Bluntly put, India’s losses in Afghanistan are huge. New Delhi invested more than $3 billion into development and reconstruction projects in the country since 2001. The development assistance provided by India was one of Afghanistan’s most significant sources of foreign investment over the past twenty years. Throughout this time, New Delhi provided scholarships, food assistance, and sent technicians to help restore Afghanistan’s power grid. But the reality on the ground today means that these investments were lost as the Taliban swept into power.
All this means that in the near-term, India will struggle to protect its assets in Afghanistan. New Delhi could move to improve relations with Iran and Russia, thereby opening channels to the Taliban without dealing with the regime directly. Long-term, decisions must be made that will determine India’s Afghan strategy going forward. Giving the Taliban too much legitimacy could cause problems for India’s long-term struggle to counter terrorist groups operating in Kashmir, but no communication at all will only extend the influence of China and Pakistan.
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