In Geopolitics Today: Monday, September 25th
France Announces Ambassador and Troop Withdrawal from Niger, Philippines Removes Chinese Barrier Near Scarborough Shoal, and other stories.
France Announces Ambassador and Troop Withdrawal from Niger
France has announced it will withdraw its ambassador and troops from Niger, weeks after the country's leaders demanded their exit. President Macron said France's ambassador was “held hostage” and cooperation was over, with a full troop pull-out expected by the year's end. Niger's government welcomed the move as a gain for sovereignty.
France's deteriorating position in the Sahel region demonstrates shifting post-colonial dynamics. As Paris loses sway, calls for autonomy grow louder. Regional states increasingly spurn French military aid against extremists and leverage anti-French sentiment. However, France fears ceding influence to militant groups. Its balancing act — providing security without eliciting backlash — is faltering. As nationalism rises, maintaining bases abroad risks becoming untenable.
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Russia Bans Petrol and Diesel Exports Beyond Ex-Soviet States
Russia has banned petrol and diesel exports outside a group of ex-Soviet states, aiming to ease domestic shortages as military fuel needs spike. Surging diesel deliveries to border regions with Ukraine reflect intensified operations. But meeting military requirements is squeezing Russia's fuel market, prompting shortfalls and price spikes.
With refinery issues and a weaker ruble also impacting supply, Moscow moved to keep more fuel at home through the export ban. The export halt highlights the economic strains of Russia's war as costs mount. Securing adequate fuel risks disrupting agriculture and industry, as Moscow diverts fuel from civilians to the frontlines amid mobilization. As military demands compete with economic needs, tough trade-offs arise for Russia. The fuel crunch shows sanctions hitting harder as the war grinds on without a swift victory. With no end in sight, Russia faces growing economic pain to sustain military efforts.
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Nigeria Attracts $13 Billion in Oil and Gas Investments
Nigeria has secured $13 billion in new oil and gas investment pledges from international majors like Shell and TotalEnergies. The government aims to boost declining production through the deals, targeting output gains of 400,000 barrels per day by 2024. Low investment, funding constraints and insecurity have curtailed Nigeria's hydrocarbon output. But the fresh commitments could help the OPEC member restore and grow supply to meet economic needs.
The influx of foreign capital highlights Nigeria's enduring allure despite headwinds. Its vast reserves retain appeal even as energy transitions accelerate globally. Yet, realizing the full potential will require tackling security and policy issues hindering growth. With the economy ailing, Nigeria leans on its oil and gas lifeline, necessitating revived investment. While transitions loom, pragmatism propels cooperation. Both sides seek to maximize returns from Nigeria's riches in the near-term, aiming to bridge to an uncertain lower-carbon future.
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Philippines Removes Chinese Barrier Near Scarborough Shoal
The Philippines removed a floating barrier installed by China near the disputed Scarborough Shoal this week, sparking a new flare-up in the strategic South China Sea. China defended the barrier, claiming it protected its jurisdiction. But Manila condemned it for infringing access to the prime fishing grounds.
The Philippines conducted a “special operation” to dismantle the ball-buoy fence, calling it a hazard to navigation. China's foreign ministry responded that its coast guard took “necessary measures” after a Philippine vessel entered the area. This stand-off highlights enduring tensions in the resource-rich waters. This incident shows China cementing control through incremental actions to normalize dominance. By unilaterally restricting access, it employs gray zone coercion without triggering outright conflict. Though the Philippines protests to uphold its rights, it has little impact without international backing. With superior forces, China can deter escalation while enforcing claims. Manila's options are limited by power asymmetries, so diplomacy will play a role to prevent clashes while managing disputes.
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Russia Withdraws from Barents Euro-Arctic Council
Russia recently withdrew from the Barents Euro-Arctic Council (BEAC), citing the paralysis of the council's activities since March 2022. The BEAC, established in 1993 to promote cooperation in the Barents Sea area, has been a symbol of optimism in Russian-Western relations. However, deteriorating relations over the years have eroded its effectiveness, culminating in Russia's withdrawal.
This impacts not just the BEAC but also the Arctic Council, where Russia's participation is vital. The lack of cooperation raises concerns about the region's long-term stability. The Arctic, once a symbol of cooperation, has become an arena of great power competition. Russia's isolation from regional bodies is pushing it to seek partnerships, especially with China. As Russia and China deepen Arctic cooperation, new power dynamics emerge, making the region increasingly significant globally. The militarization of the Arctic and competition over its resources could have far-reaching consequences. This emphasizes the importance of continued analysis and dialogue regarding international relations and geopolitics.
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Saudi Arabia and Jordan Condemn Storming of Al-Aqsa Mosque
Saudi Arabia and Jordan have condemned the storming of Jerusalem's Al-Aqsa Mosque by hundreds of Israeli settlers under police protection. The Saudi foreign ministry described it as “provocative practices by extremists” that violate the site's status quo. Jordan also denounced the move as an “unacceptable violation” of international law.
The recurring Al-Aqsa clashes reveal the continued sparks that could ignite wider conflict. As extremist settlers force entry on religious holidays, their actions undermine the historic status quo governing the site. This feeds perceptions of Israeli encroachment on Muslim rights and holy places. While Israel asserts security control, its acquiescence to settler activities angers Palestinians and Arab nations. With peace talks stalled, these religious flashpoints risk igniting new violence. As both sides claim the area as exclusively theirs, managing the Temple Mount/Al-Aqsa remains caught in the intricate web of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.