In Geopolitics Today: Monday, September 11th
Ethiopia Completes Filling of Nile Renaissance Dam, India Navigating Division at the G20 Summit, and other stories.
Ethiopia Completes Filling of Nile Renaissance Dam
Ethiopia announced this past Sunday that it has completed the controversial filling of its Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Nile River. This massive $4.2 billion dam has been a major source of dispute with downstream nations Egypt and Sudan, who fear the dam will severely reduce their access to Nile waters.
While Ethiopia views the dam as critical to its development and electricity goals, Egypt sees it as an existential threat, relying on the Nile for 97% of its water needs. Sudan has also raised concerns about impacts on its water access. Tensions remain high despite renewed negotiations between the three nations late last month, with Egypt calling Ethiopia's filling of the dam “illegal.” Moving forward, compromise and cooperation will be critical to balance the water needs and anxieties of all parties. A fair agreement accounting for the interests of Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia is essential to prevent further escalation of this dispute.
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Fraying Armenia-Russia Ties Signal Shifts in Regional Order
Tensions have been rising between strategic partners Armenia and Russia, as Yerevan grows increasingly critical of Moscow's response to regional security threats. Armenia has boldly denounced Russia's “absolute indifference” to Azerbaijani military actions against Armenians. It has also expressed regret over its heavy dependence on Russia for security, calling it a “strategic mistake.” In a significant move, Armenia is now sending humanitarian aid to Ukraine for the first time since the Russian invasion.
The deterioration of this longstanding alliance signifies major geopolitical shifts in the region. Armenia relies deeply on Russian military support, and Russia maintains troops and bases there. However, Moscow's failure to support Armenia against Azerbaijani incursions has shaken trust. Still, Russia retains substantial leverage and economic influence. The path forward will test Russia's willingness to lose its grip over a key strategic partner. The weakening of this alliance may open opportunities for US and European engagement but also risks further instability.
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Australia and the Philippines Improve Partnership
Australia and the Philippines agreed last week to upgrade their relationship to a strategic partnership, amid escalating tensions in the South China Sea. The agreement includes strengthened economic and defence cooperation, especially joint naval patrols, reflecting shared concerns about Chinese actions in disputed waters. During Australian PM Albanese's visit to Manila, Philippines President Marcos thanked him for Australia's support against “invalid” Chinese maritime claims.
This alliance signifies closer alignment between two US security partners in confronting Chinese assertiveness. As Chinese vessels continue blocking Philippine resupply missions, joint patrols could deter further coercion. At the same time, overly provocative actions risk unwelcome escalation. While bolstering its own capabilities, the Philippines seems to hope that leveraging Australian support will increase pressure on China to show restraint and engage in peaceful dialogue. Overall, this partnership demonstrates widening efforts to counterbalance China's maritime ambitions.
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NATO Defence-Industrial Production Plan
At the most recent NATO summit, members agreed to an action plan for strengthening the alliance's defence industrial base as they rush to restock weapons and aid Ukraine. The plan will initially focus on land munitions, examining supply bottlenecks and matching defence planning to production capacity. It also aims to improve acquisition efficiency, encourage joint procurements, and address policy challenges around intellectual property and export controls.
This effort is vital considering the unprecedented pace of arms transfers to Ukraine. However, it remains to be seen if NATO can truly incentivize members to engage their defence industries more cohesively. Streamlining cumbersome contracting and standards-setting will be key tests. While political urgency is high post-Ukraine, maintaining momentum beyond the crisis will be difficult. Overall, the plan seems a step toward optimizing NATO's industrial preparedness, but practical implementation hurdles persist.
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India Navigating Division at the G20 Summit
At the G20 Leaders' Summit in New Delhi, India announced the adoption of the summit declaration despite lack of consensus on addressing the Ukraine conflict. The declaration stresses shared goals like robust economic growth, food and energy security, and pandemic preparedness, while avoiding overt criticism of Russia. A key milestone was the addition of the African Union as a new G20 member, expanding representation.
Achieving compromise language on Ukraine averted a high-profile split in the bloc. However, concrete collective actions were limited overall. While inclusion of diverse voices is positive, diluted commitments risk rendering the G20 ineffective on pressing global challenges. Yet, preventing open division retains potential for future cooperation. Despite modest tangible progress, India secured a unifying outcome amid deep rifts over geopolitics and development needs.
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Stalled Progress on Lachin Corridor
Azerbaijan has stated it agreed to reopen the vital Lachin Corridor to Nagorno-Karabakh, but only if an alternative road through Aghdam is simultaneously opened for Azerbaijani aid. While this initially seemed a concession, Azerbaijan later clarified the Lachin Corridor would not reopen immediately. Karabakh authorities confirmed a tentative deal, but access for aid groups is still blocked.
This impasse highlights deep distrust between the parties. Reopening Lachin with reciprocal concessions in theory eases tensions, but risks normalizing Azerbaijani control. Meanwhile, military build-ups continue, threatening renewed clashes absent a lasting peace agreement. For now, stalling violates past ceasefire terms and prolongs humanitarian crises. Though incremental progress provides some optimism, substantive negotiations, and potentially the involvement of foreign powers, are urgently needed to address core grievances and prevent further violence.