In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, April 18th
Jordan Faces Increased Security Risks, US Reimposes Oil Sanctions on Venezuela, and other stories.
Jordan Faces Increased Security Risks
Jordan's interception of Iranian drones targeting Israel during the recent attack signals the kingdom's alignment with the United States and Israel, a stance that may lead to heightened security risks. As the conflict between Iran and Israel escalates, Jordan could become a target for Iranian-backed proxies in Syria and Iraq, who may seek to distract Jordanian air defences and inflict damage in response to Jordan's support for Israel.
To mitigate these risks, Jordan is likely to leverage its relationship with the United States to request additional military aid, such as the Patriot missile system, to bolster its air defence capabilities. While the high demand for the system may limit immediate deployment, the U.S. is expected to increase military assistance to Jordan to enhance regional security. Domestically, Jordan's actions may fuel anti-Western sentiment and intensify protests, as many pro-Palestinian Jordanians view the interceptions as defending Israel. The government is likely to respond with a tougher crackdown on dissent, using its recently introduced Cybercrime Law to quell criticism.
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Qatar Re-evaluates its Mediation Role with Hamas
Qatar's Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani announced that his country is reevaluating its role as a mediator between Israel and Hamas, citing “politicians with narrow interests” who have made “destructive statements” that harm Qatar. The statement comes amid growing criticism from US lawmakers, particularly Republicans, who accuse Qatar of failing to leverage its relationship with Hamas, which has maintained a political office in Doha for over a decade.
The stalemate in hostage negotiations between Israel and Hamas has led to increased pressure on Qatar in the US. Some have called for Qatar to expel Hamas' political leaders if talks fail, while others have threatened to revoke Qatar's status as a major non-NATO ally unless it takes action against Hamas members living in the country. Qatar, which frequently serves as an intermediary between the US and its adversaries, maintains that it hosts Hamas at the request of Washington to facilitate indirect communication. As criticism mounts, Qatar's role as a mediator in the conflict appears to be in jeopardy, potentially complicating efforts to secure a temporary cease-fire and the release of hostages held by Hamas.
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LME Russian Metal Ban Reshapes Global Trade Dynamics
The London Metal Exchange (LME) has banned newly produced Russian aluminium, copper, and nickel. With the LME no longer accepting these metals from Russia, the Shanghai Futures Exchange has become the only major market where Russian metal shipments can be traded. This development is likely to further strengthen China's position as a major buyer of Russian metals, as demand from Western countries continues to decline due to sanctions.
The ban has forced Russia to redirect its metal exports, with China emerging as the primary destination. As the world's largest producer of refined copper and aluminium, and a major player in nickel supply through its investments in Indonesia, China is well-positioned to absorb the influx of Russian metals. The shifting trade patterns are expected to have ripple effects across the metals market in Europe and beyond, with prices on the LME likely to rise, particularly for nickel, which has proven vulnerable to significant price surges in the past. While the LME has implemented daily price increase limits to curb excessive hikes, the ban may still lead to steeper discounts for Russian-origin metals as they flow to countries unaffected by sanctions, such as China.
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Russia-China Relationship: Alignment, Not Alliance
The Russia-China relationship is best characterized as an alignment rather than a formal alliance, despite deepening cooperation in areas such as military exercises, aerospace, trade, and mutual support in international forums. Several factors drive this alignment, including a shared opposition to US global predominance, a desire for regime security, and the personal relationship between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping.
However, the partnership also faces challenges, such as Russia's concerns about becoming overly dependent on China for energy exports, complex border relations, and some resistance within the Chinese leadership to deeper integration with Russia. As the relationship evolves, it is likely to have significant implications for global power relations, particularly in the Arctic and Indo-Pacific regions, where both countries seek to expand their influence. While the Russia-China alignment may pose challenges to the US-led international order, it is essential to avoid viewing it as a monolithic bloc.
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US Reimposes Oil Sanctions on Venezuela
The United States has reimposed sanctions on Venezuela's oil sector, citing concerns over the government's adherence to an agreement reached last October in Barbados, which included provisions for presidential elections in July. Washington's decision not to renew a licence is tied to accusations that the Venezuelan government has barred several key political opponents from participating in the upcoming elections.
The move appears to be a play by the US to achieve a favourable regime in Venezuela. The previous sanctions relief was seemingly aimed at incentivizing the Venezuelan government to allow US-backed opposition candidates to participate in the elections, with the goal of increasing their chances of success. The reimposition of sanctions following the exclusion of these candidates suggests that the US is using its economic leverage to influence the political landscape in Venezuela. The sanctions are expected to impact Venezuela's fuel sales and create challenges for US oil companies operating in the country, with the exception of Chevron, which will be allowed to continue its joint venture with Venezuela's national oil company, PDVSA.
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Gulf States Diversify UAV Acquisitions
Gulf countries continue to be active buyers of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in recent years, with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia leading the way in terms of order volume and value. Washington's reluctance to transfer advanced technology has opened the door for Chinese and Turkish exports to gain a foothold in the Gulf market.
China became the dominant UAV provider to the Gulf states during the early 2010s, securing landmark deals with the UAE and Saudi Arabia. However, frustration with some of the Chinese equipment's technical problems and the impressive performance of Turkish UAVs have led to a shift in preference towards Turkish systems. Turkey's ability to deliver equipment quickly has also contributed to its success in the region, with Kuwait, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia all placing orders for Turkish UAVs. In addition to diversifying their foreign suppliers, the UAE and Saudi Arabia have ramped up domestic UAV design and manufacturing efforts. Despite these local initiatives, Gulf countries are likely to continue purchasing UAVs from abroad to maintain strategic relations and address immediate needs while domestic programs mature.