In Geopolitics Today - Thursday, April 28th
Iraq Protests Turkey’s Renewed Military Operation, Some EU Member States Ready to Pay For Russian Gas In Rubles, The Fallibility of Multilateral Agreements
Iraq Protests Turkey’s Renewed Military Operation
Last week, Turkey initiated a new phase to its air and ground offensive against Kurdish fighters in northern Iraq. Turkish commandos and special forces, backed by drones and attack helicopters, are targeting Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) positions in parts of northern Iraq, causing the government in Baghdad to condemn Ankara’s military activities. Turkey's military operation has damaged relations with Iraq's government in Baghdad, which has accused Turkey of violating the country's territorial integrity and national sovereignty without coordination with the Iraqi government.
On the 18th of April, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar announced that a Turkish air and ground operation was launched to target PKK hideouts in the Metina, Zap, Avashin-Basyan, and Qandil areas in northern Iraq. The Iraqi government has summoned the Turkish ambassador to Baghdad in protest over the Turkish operation. Baghdad has contradicted claims made by Turkish officials that both the Iraqi government and the regional Kurdish leaders fully support the Turkish military operation. Iraqi officials have urged Turkey to withdraw its forces, and have made clear that Iraq would make efforts to end the Turkish operation diplomatically. Despite protests by the government in Iraq, Turkey is expected to continue its military operation on PKK positions in northern Iraq.
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Some EU Member States Ready to Pay For Russian Gas In Rubles
Energy companies in Austria, Germany, Hungary, and Slovakia have indicated that they, contrary to the sanctions regime imposed by the European Union, are set to meet Russia's demand to pay for natural gas in rubles. Despite consistent warnings from EU officials that such payments would violate sanctions, major energy companies in the four EU member states are reportedly preparing to register with Gazprombank to meet the ruble payment requirement.
Under Russia's new payment mechanisms, importers of Russian natural gas are required to establish an account in dollars or euros at Gazprombank, and then must exchange their payments into rubles via a second account. The potential violation of EU law is derived from the fact that payments in rubles would involve transferring funds to Russia’s central bank, a sanctioned entity within the EU. While EU officials have warned that such a move would be in contravention to the sanctions imposed by the bloc on Russia, the European Commission has indicated that EU member states may still be able to comply with the new Russian rules without being in conflict with EU law. Germany's Uniper, which is the country's largest importer of Russian gas, has said it will continue to pay in euros and dollars while also opening a second account in rubles to facilitate payments for Russian natural gas going forward.
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The Fallibility of Multilateral Agreements
Given the fact that the joint commitment by Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States in 1994 to preserve Ukrainian sovereignty in exchange for the withdrawal of nuclear weapons failed to deter one of the signatories from launching an invasion of Ukraine, the legal foundation underpinning multilateral agreements at a time of geopolitical competition can reasonably be questioned.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has done grievous harm to perceptions of common norms which dictate the behaviour of states within the international order. The failure of the signatories to uphold Ukraine’s security-for-denuclearization arrangement is a reminder that multilateral agreements often lack the enforcement mechanisms which compel the signatories to uphold their commitments. Without action by the other signatories to sufficiently punish Russia in 2014, the reality that hard power remains a useful and credible tool of international relations, one which legitimizes the pursuit of military power as a means of achieving political goals. Without a common understanding between the great powers on any rules of behaviour within the international system going forward, might-makes-right politics will only continue to drive the calculations of policymakers.
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Do you think Russia has factored the risk to non-proliferation efforts posed by the example of its invasion of Ukraine? I can't decide to what extent Moscow would perceive a neigbour state achieving nuclear capability, say Iran or Turkey, as a major threat to its security. Through speeches and parade, Russian leaders present themselves as having higher tolerance for nuclear warfare, but I think the reality is somewhat more complicated.