In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, April 20th
Egypt Recovers 200 Troops from Sudan after RSF Capture, Russia Aims to be Security Guarantor in Afghanistan, and other stories.
Egypt Recovers 200 Troops from Sudan after RSF Capture
As the conflict in Sudan continues, the RSF recently captured nearly 200 Egyptian troops who were in Sudan as part of a joint military training program with the Sudanese counterpart. The Egyptian army later announced that they had successfully evacuated their troops from Sudanese territories.
President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi of Egypt has announced that his country is working to mediate a solution to the conflict in Sudan. However, he emphasized that Egypt is not taking sides and that Cairo’s stance is based on principles of non-interference in the affairs of other countries. Despite multiple cease-fire announcements, the situation remains tense and unpredictable, with Sudan’s neighbours and other international actors paying close attention.
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Russia Aims to be Security Guarantor in Afghanistan
Russia has been intensifying its diplomatic efforts with Afghanistan to establish itself as a security guarantor in the region. The country's proximity to Central Asia creates a shared geopolitical reality, which has allowed Russia to justify the expansion of its security and military cooperation via the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). The recent meeting between the Russian Ambassador to Afghanistan and the Taliban's foreign minister is just one of many diplomatic efforts between Russia and Afghanistan.
Russia's approach to Afghanistan differs significantly from that of the West. Rather than direct military engagement, Russia is deepening its cooperation through regional organizations such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the CSTO, and the Moscow format of regional peace consultations on Afghanistan. This approach was evident in the latest rounds of meetings, where ministers emphasized the need for the Taliban to implement the demands made by the international community. They also called for the lifting of sanctions and the return of Afghanistan's frozen assets in the United States. As the situation in Afghanistan remains unstable, Russia's diplomatic efforts will continue to play a role in shaping the country's future.
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China's Momentum in Semiconductor Industry
Recent events have shown that the US is increasingly limiting the ability of Chinese companies to acquire advanced chipmaking technologies, in an effort to restrict the country's indigenous semiconductor industry. However, China has been making headway in the semiconductor ecosystem since the start of its Made in China 2025 initiative in 2015. Despite not yet being on the same level as countries like Taiwan and the Netherlands, Chinese companies already represent a significant portion of the global chipmaking capacity and fabless chip design houses.
While the US is investing heavily in domestic chip production through the CHIPS and Science Act, China is said to be preparing a package of $146 billion to boost its own chip industry. The notoriously complex supply chain for chipmaking may work in China's favour, as it has already spent decades nurturing its stockpile of rare earth metals, skilled chip designers and engineers, and thousands of indigenous suppliers. US sanctions on Huawei have been crippling, and have given Beijing the impetus to develop homegrown technological capabilities and cultivate a more secure supply chain to boost its semiconductor industry. It remains to be seen whether the US restrictions on China's semiconductor industry will ultimately succeed or fail, but current indications suggest that China's momentum in this field is unlikely to be stopped.
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Clashes Between Army and Paramilitary Forces Escalate in Sudan
Recent clashes between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan have shown no signs of de-escalation. Despite international efforts, the situation could worsen as both sides reject negotiations. The estimated number of troops on either side is relatively equal, with recent reports suggesting that contingents of the Sudanese air force may have defected, negating the military's intelligence and airpower advantage.
The western Darfur region is at particular risk of intense conflict due to its historical connections to the RSF. This region has seen recent spikes in tribal clashes, along with increased recruitment efforts by both the army and RSF. The escalation of conflict in this area could attract additional armed groups and result in a more protracted conflict across the country. It is highly unlikely that a cessation of conflict in its current state could salvage the transitional agreement either as sustained conflict between the military and RSF makes negotiations over power-sharing and security reform unlikely in the immediate future. Further expansion of the fighting could also provide opportunities for other armed groups to become involved in clashes, leading to a more prolonged conflict.
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Geopolitical Shifts in US Clean Energy Dominance
The Biden Administration's Inflation Reduction Act, touted as the largest piece of climate legislation in US history, is under fire for being nationalistic and protectionist. Critics say it signals a move away from free trade toward protectionist policies, highlighting the complex interplay between decarbonization and domestic supply chains.
Meanwhile, the US and Europe are seeking to reduce their reliance on China, which dominates clean energy manufacturing capacity and raw materials markets. South America, with its vast amounts of lithium, has emerged as a promising alternative to China. However, negotiations with South American leaders may prove challenging, as they prioritize adding value to their own economies over simply exporting raw materials to support US supply chains.