In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, April 27th
Bahrain and Qatar Restore Diplomatic Relations after Six-year Rift, Compromise in Sight for Submarine Deal between China and Thailand, and other stories.
Bahrain and Qatar Restore Diplomatic Relations after Six-year Rift
Two Arab countries, Bahrain and Qatar, have officially restored diplomatic relations after a six-year rift. This reconciliation comes within a broader geopolitical context that has seen many countries in the Middle East shift toward more diplomatic approaches to their regional rivals since 2020/21. States in the region are now more focused on economic integration, investment deals, and trade between each other than they were, particularly in the aftermath of the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings.
The reconciliation between Bahrain and Qatar is significant given ongoing efforts to strengthen Gulf Arab unity following the al-Ula Summit of January 2021. Despite that summit’s decision to lift the blockade of Qatar, relations between Manama and Doha remained very negative since they began thawing last year. However, Bahrain joining Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt in reconciling with Qatar opens the door for the six GCC states to better coordinate on a host of multilateral issues. The restoration of diplomatic ties is expected to spur bilateral cooperation and confidence-building measures, including increased trade, investment, and joint efforts to address maritime boundary disputes
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Compromise in Sight for Submarine Deal between China and Thailand
Thailand's acquisition of a new marine vessel from China has been suspended since early 2022 due to the unavailability of a German engine specified for the submarine. However, recent reports indicate that the Thai government may be open to accepting the Chinese-made CHD620 engine as an alternative, as long as it is safe and China compensates Thailand for the delay.
This compromise is expected to ensure that the agreement continues, which is crucial to Beijing's plan to build security relations with Bangkok. The acquisition of the S26T Yuan-class submarine is also important for Thailand. Although Thailand's geography limits the need for a submarine capability, the Royal Thai Navy has invested significant prestige in acquiring the vessel, and abandoning the procurement would incur significant costs. With the costs of cancelling the procurement likely to be significant, it is not surprising to see that Thailand is looking for a compromise. The coming months may see a finalized agreement, which will benefit relations between China and Thailand.
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Iran Seizes Marshall Islands-flagged Oil Tanker in the Strait of Hormuz
A Marshall Islands-flagged oil tanker was seized by Iranian naval forces after it collided with an Iranian boat. The ship had just left Kuwait and was headed to Texas, and its seizure occurred near the Strait of Hormuz, which is a chokepoint for at least one-third of the world's seaborne oil. The US Navy has condemned Iran's actions, denouncing its harassment of vessels and accusing it of interference.
The seizure of the oil tanker is the latest incident in the ongoing shadow war between Israel and Iran. This conflict remains in the grey-zone, and the Gulf of Oman is an area where ships are mysteriously attacked, drones downed, and oil tankers seized in recent years. The waters in the region have been a source of tension between Iran on the one side and the US and Israel on the other, with the latter two imposing sanctions on Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps. The incident highlights the vulnerability of seaborne oil transportation and the need for countries to work together to ensure the safety of shipping lanes.
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India and China Hold High-level Talks over Border Tensions
Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh met with his Chinese counterpart Li Shangfu on Thursday in the Indian capital. This is the first time a Chinese defence minister has visited India since a deadly clash between their troops in the Galwan Valley last year. The two ministers had "frank discussions" about the developments in the border areas, as well as bilateral relations. Singh told Li that all border issues between India and China need to be resolved per existing bilateral agreements and commitments.
The two countries have been on a downward spiral since the Galwan clash, with tensions escalating further in December last year when their troops clashed in Tawang region of India's northeastern Arunachal Pradesh state. However, the two sides have agreed to maintain the security and stability on the ground in the border area, according to a statement issued by India's Ministry of External Affairs. India is currently the chair of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and Singh will chair the Friday meeting of the eight-member SCO in New Delhi, where Li and other defence ministers will be in attendance.
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Mozambique Greenlights Resumption of LNG Project
Mozambican President Filipe Nyusi has announced that it is now safe to resume the Cabo Delgado province's liquified natural gas (LNG) project that has been on hold since April 2021. The announcement may increase pressure on French energy firm TotalEnergies to declare a resumption date for the project.
Despite the boosted security and the continued deployment of troops from Rwanda and the Southern African Development Community, a restart of operations at the LNG project may make it an attractive target for insurgents. Mozambique's President has stated that the country wishes to make use of high energy prices and the global transition toward renewable energy. TotalEnergies, on the other hand, has mentioned that the decision to restart the project is dependent on security assurances and the presentation of a “transparent vision” of the project's expenses.