In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, April 6th
Assaults on Al-Aqsa Mosque Threaten Stability in the Middle East, Latin American and Caribbean Countries to Jointly Fight Inflation, and other stories.
US Dominance of the Transatlantic Relationship
The current state of transatlantic relations has changed recently, with Europe expressing concerns about the United States abandoning their European allies during the Trump administration. Despite the European Commission's pledge to make the EU an independent actor in global affairs, the Russo-Ukrainian War has exposed their inability to lead themselves, with the US leading the response.
The growing dominance of the US within the Atlantic alliance is evident in virtually every area of national strength. The US economy has dramatically outgrown the EU and the UK combined over the last 15 years, coinciding with an increase in the global use of the dollar relative to the euro. This power imbalance has left Europe lacking agency in the Russia-Ukraine crisis, with the US exercising growing influence under the Biden administration.
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Assaults on Al-Aqsa Mosque Threaten Stability in the Middle East
The recent assaults on worshippers at Jerusalem's Al-Aqsa Mosque have drawn international condemnation and sparked concerns about the potential for further conflict in the region. This led to a barrage of rockets being fired into Israel from Lebanon, with no one claiming responsibility for the attack. Israel has attributed the subsequent rocket attack on their territory to Hamas.
In response to four missiles fired from Gaza earlier in the day, which were themselves a reaction to the police raid on Al-Aqsa, Israeli planes attacked multiple sites in Gaza, hitting targets at two sites west of the city and in the Nuseirat refugee camp in the centre of the coastal enclave. Both Israel and Palestine claim sovereignty over Jerusalem, making the situation complex and volatile. The potential for conflict to spread beyond the immediate region is also a cause for concern. The UN peacekeeping force in south Lebanon urged both sides to show restraint and avoid escalation. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is said to be closely monitoring the situation, while the United States has reaffirmed its longstanding commitment to Israel's security.
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Canada to Install Long-Range Radar System
Canada is implementing new defence capabilities by installing a long-range radar system called the Arctic Over-the-Horizon Radar along its border with the US. The system will provide long-range detection of incoming threats approaching Alaska and northern areas of the continent. The Canadian government is also planning to establish a second system, the Polar Over-the-Horizon Radar, which would provide early warning radar coverage over the Arctic.
The projects are part of a layered approach to protect North American cities, complemented by a classified network of sensors called Crossbow and a new space-based system. As many as four sites could be needed for the system's transmitters and receivers, with decisions on potential locations expected to be finalized by spring 2024. The Canadian government is also investing CA$7.3 billion on new infrastructure to support the acquisition of F-35 jets by Canada, including upgrades to locations in the Arctic region from which the aircraft are able to operate.
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Iran's Nuclear Program and China's New Role in the Middle East
China's role in renewing relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia could pose a challenge to addressing Iran's nuclear program. Despite having significant investments in the Middle East and signing multi-billion dollar trade deals with Gulf states, China's diplomatic efforts do not provide an obvious solution to the issue of Iran's nuclear program. Meanwhile, the US has pursued a policy of deterrence against Iran's regional influence, rather than addressing its nuclear program, which has resulted in military escalation in countries such as Syria.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has warned that Iran is close to obtaining weapons-grade enriched uranium and has called for Tehran to comply with its safeguards. Recently, the discovery of traces of enriched uranium at undeclared sites led to the IAEA passing a resolution condemning Iran for failing to provide information to safeguard the investigation. Iran has also disconnected many of the surveillance cameras used by the IAEA to monitor its enrichment program, raising international concerns about its nuclear program. Reports indicate that Iran has reached nearly 84 percent purity in its nuclear enrichment, further heightening concerns about the country's intentions.
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Latin American and Caribbean Countries to Jointly Fight Inflation
Leaders from 11 Latin American and Caribbean countries recently held their first virtual summit to address the issue of inflation and agreed to form a technical group to propose and implement ideal conditions for the exchange of basic food and intermediate goods. The group aims to make these goods more accessible and affordable for the most vulnerable populations. The leaders evaluated the inflationary phenomenon and agreed to meet in person in Cancun in May to discuss further measures, including the involvement of foreign ministers, ministers of economy, and businessmen, and the invitation of other countries in the region.
The meeting highlights the shared concern of leaders in the region regarding the multidimensional crisis that affects the global economy and its impact on the world supply of food and other necessities. The group’s mandate is to define regional cooperation measures to reduce the costs of basic produce and their production inputs. However, net food exporters such as Argentina and Brazil are unlikely to remove tariffs on food exports to their Latin American counterparts, as they are a significant source of export revenue. While improving logistical operations and easing some sanitary measures may increase the efficiency of the supply chain for food products across the region, this would only marginally decrease the cost of food products for end consumers.