In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, April 25th
Russia Threatens to Halt Kazakhstan's Oil Exports to Germany, Houthis Force US to Seek Diplomatic Solution in Red Sea, and other stories.
Russia Threatens to Halt Kazakhstan's Oil Exports to Germany
Russia's state-controlled pipeline operator Transneft has warned Kazakhstan that its oil exports to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline could cease in June due to a payment dispute. The majority of Kazakhstan's 1.5 million barrels per day of oil exports, which account for 1.5% of global supply, flow through various Russian pipelines, making the landlocked country reliant on Russia for its energy exports. The northern leg of the Druzhba system, which connects Germany via Poland and Belarus, is currently being used for Kazakh oil deliveries to the Schwedt refinery near Berlin.
Transneft has informed Kazakh suppliers that Poland's state-owned pipeline operator PERN must pay for metering services at the Adamowo base on the Polish-Belarusian border by June, when the current service contract expires. PERN has yet to make the payment, stating that doing so would be a violation of EU sanctions against Russia. The company is exploring alternative solutions, including the use of a certified metering system at Adamowo. The potential disruption has raised concerns among Kazakh pipeline operators and oil companies, many of which have significant Western stakeholders. Kazakhstan plans to ship 1.2 million tonnes of oil via Druzhba to Germany this year, with goals to increase exports to 2 million tonnes in the future.
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US Approves Missile Sale to Bolster Poland's Strike Capabilities
The United States Department of State has approved the potential sale of up to 1,800 air-launched missiles to Poland, including 821 AGM-158B-2 Joint Air-to-Surface Stand-off Missile-Extended Range (JASSM-ER) cruise missiles. The $1.77 billion deal aims to significantly enhance Poland's long-range strike capabilities. The JASSM-ER, with a range of over 930 kilometres, would allow the Polish Air Force to engage targets deep within adversary territory while minimizing the risk to its aircraft.
Poland's efforts to strengthen its deterrence capabilities have intensified since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. In addition to the JASSM-ER, Warsaw has expressed interest in acquiring UGM-109 Tomahawk cruise missiles for its planned submarine fleet and new surface vessels equipped with the Mk 41 vertical launch system. However, these naval acquisitions are not expected to materialize before 2028-2030. The US State Department's approval also included potential sales of AIM-120C-8 AMRAAM and AIM-9X Block II Sidewinder missiles, further bolstering Poland's air-to-air capabilities. While the approved quantities may not reflect the final contract numbers, the proposed sales underscore Poland's determination to modernize its armed forces, with defense spending now exceeding 4% of its GDP. However, questions remain about the sustainability of Warsaw's military spending spree and the financial arrangements underpinning its recent arms purchases.
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Central Asian States Pursue Trade Liberalization
Central Asian countries are making concerted efforts to dismantle trade barriers and pave the way for a unified regional market, a key objective of the B5+1 economic initiative backed by the United States. Recent diplomatic engagements among the five states — Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan — have focused on streamlining customs procedures, protecting property rights, and resolving commercial disputes.
In mid-April, a flurry of bilateral agreements was signed between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, as well as Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, targeting trade facilitation and the expansion of joint economic projects. Uzbekistan and Tajikistan are working to establish a free trade zone and logistics hub, while Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are digitalizing customs operations to ease cross-border movement. However, the Tajik-Kyrgyz relationship remains strained due to ongoing border disputes. The increased diplomatic activity may also unsettle Moscow, especially if Central Asian states begin to enact policies that would sideline Russian trade interests.
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Poland and Lithuania Vow to Help Ukraine in Repatriating Men
Poland and Lithuania have pledged to assist Ukraine in repatriating military-age men who have left the country to avoid conscription, as Kyiv struggles to mobilize sufficient manpower to counter Russia's ongoing offensive. The defence ministers of both NATO member states have signalled their readiness to take measures to encourage or compel the return of Ukrainian men aged 18-60, who are legally obliged to register for military service under martial law. Ukraine has already tightened passport issuance for this demographic, effectively preventing those abroad from extending their stay.
As frontline NATO states hosting significant numbers of Ukrainian refugees, Poland and Lithuania are key stakeholders in the conflict. Supporting Ukraine's mobilization efforts is an effort to prevent a Russian victory that could directly threaten their own security. However, any active repatriation measures, particularly if they involve coercion, risk opening legal and political quandaries. Forcing refugees to return to a war zone raises concerns that could strain Poland and Lithuania's EU obligations. It also sets a problematic precedent of conditional asylum that could further destabilize refugee flows and create a double standard. Ukraine, for its part, faces the daunting challenge of accumulating as much military manpower as possible.
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Houthis Force US to Seek Diplomatic Solution in Red Sea
Yemen's Houthi rebels have effectively challenged US naval dominance in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, forcing Washington to acknowledge that there is no military solution to the conflict. The Houthis launched a campaign of attacks on merchant ships in December 2023, targetting vessels connected to Israel and demanding a ceasefire in Gaza. The attacks, which included a mix of ballistic and cruise missiles, drones, and unmanned vessels, disrupted maritime trade routes, causing significant economic losses and re-routing of traffic.
Despite deploying naval forces to the region, the US and its allies have struggled to subdue the Houthis, suffering casualties and equipment losses in the process. The rebels' low-cost, low-tech tactics proved effective in frustrating the superior US forces. Faced with mounting costs and domestic political pressures, US Special Envoy to Yemen Tim Lenderking admitted that diplomacy, not force, was the only path forward. However, the US finds itself in a difficult position, as meeting the Houthis' demands for a Gaza ceasefire could alienate key allies. The conflict has also exposed the limitations of Washington's military-first approach to foreign policy challenges, with regional powers like Egypt pressing for a resolution that prioritizes Yemeni interests and the resumption of Red Sea trade.
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Turkey and Germany Seeking Common Ground
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier met in Ankara on Wednesday, marking the centennial of diplomatic relations between the two countries. The leaders meet at a time when a number of underlying tensions are troubling the bilateral relationship, particularly the war in Gaza.
During their talks, Erdoğan criticized Israel's actions in Gaza, accusing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of endangering regional security for political gain. Steinmeier struck a different tone by defending Israel's right to self-defence. The divergent positions on the conflict are a clear challenge in the Turkey-Germany partnership. Erdoğan pressed for the removal of German restrictions on Turkey's defence industry, framing it as a key obstacle in the relationship. Steinmeier, in turn, stressed the importance of press freedom and the rule of law for progress in Turkey-EU relations.