In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, April 13th
Qatar and Bahrain Restore Bilateral Ties, Tensions Rise in Sudan as the Army and Militias Compete for Power, and other stories.
Qatar and Bahrain Restore Bilateral Ties
Qatar and Bahrain have restored diplomatic ties and resolved their long-standing dispute. The two countries met at the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) General Secretariat in Riyadh to enhance Gulf unity and integration, marking a significant improvement in regional relationships. This development is part of several other efforts to resolve regional disputes, including those between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
The conflict between Bahrain and Qatar largely centred on the latter's relationship with Iran and issues along their maritime border. In 2017, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt imposed a diplomatic blockade on Qatar over allegations of supporting extremist organizations in the region, which Doha denied. The four countries banned Qatari planes and ships from using their airspace and territorial waters. The reconciliation accord between Qatar and Bahrain was sealed in January 2021, with the three other states renewing their relations. Although the UAE and Qatar have yet to open their respective embassies, the restoration of ties signals a significant step towards resolving regional disputes and promoting peace and stability in the Gulf region.
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Russia Approves Air Defence Agreement with Kyrgyzstan
The Russian government approved an agreement with Kyrgyzstan this week on the establishment of a common regional air defence system. Although the agreement had been in the works for some time, its success could have an impact on the neutrality of Central Asia. Russia and Kyrgyzstan do not share a border, but they are both members of the Commonwealth of Independent States and already participate in a joint air defence structure.
The new agreement is an augmentation of the existing system and could signal Russia's ambitions to create joint regional air defence systems across Central Asia. However, there are doubts as to whether such systems can be successfully implemented in the foreseeable future, given that the air defence systems and forces of most participants remain in poor shape — with Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan particularly vulnerable due to their meagre air defence capabilities. However, Kyrgyzstan recently purchased Pechora-2 BM surface-to-air missile systems from Belarus and plans to deploy them to Batken, a region where violence erupted on the Kyrgyz-Tajik border last year.
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China's Crude Oil Imports Hit 3-Year High
Chinese crude oil imports hit a nearly three-year high in March, as refiners geared up for an expected surge in demand. Imports rose by 22.5% year-over-year, with China bringing in 12.3 million barrels of crude oil per day (bpd) during the month. This was much higher than the 10.1 million bpd imported in March 2022. Refiners have been increasing output as the country eases restrictions, with Chinese oil demand expected to rise by up to 1.4 million bpd this year.
The increase in crude oil imports comes as Chinese economic growth is expected to exceed official targets and consumer spending rises. A rise in oil prices could follow the surge in demand, with prices predicted to increase by between $3 and $5 per barrel if China sees the expected high growth. Refiners have been keen to increase output and capture the strong margins that come with high demand. With China being the world's top crude oil importer, a rise in demand could see crude oil imports hit new record highs.
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Tensions Rise in Sudan as the Army and Militias Compete for Power
Tensions are rising in Sudan as two armed groups, the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), vie for supremacy. The RSF, a powerful former militia, has mobilized its forces in Khartoum, Marawi, and other cities, prompting a military response from the Sudanese army. The RSF's deployment in Marawi has raised concerns that the group is manoeuvring itself in one of Sudan's most strategic sites, the Merowe Dam. Escalating tensions could lead to armed conflict between the two sides, pushing the country into civil war.
The dispute between the two armed factions centres on military reform and the incorporation of the RSF into the armed forces. Hemeti, the head of the RSF, is reluctant to set a clear deadline to bring his forces into the army, which has delayed the signing of a final settlement for a two-year civilian-led transition to elections. In recent weeks, both forces have amassed troops and weapons in and around Khartoum, with the army greatly ramping up its presence in the city centre. Despite efforts to form a joint command to oversee the integration process, disagreements persist over who would have oversight, leaving the situation precarious.
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China’s Sinopec Invests in QatarEnergy's LNG Project
Chinese state-owned company Sinopec has taken a 5% stake in QatarEnergy's North Field East (NFE) LNG expansion project, becoming the first Asian firm to do so. The move strengthens the relationship between China and Qatar, which have been collaborating to deepen their energy infrastructure cooperation. Qatar is China's second-largest LNG supplier, and Sinopec's agreement with QatarEnergy secures its position as an equity partner in one of Qatar's mega liquefied natural gas projects.
QatarEnergy has planned two LNG expansion projects to boost natural gas exports from Qatar's North Field. NFE is one of these, and the other is North Field South (NFS), which is supported by ConocoPhillips, Shell, and TotalEnergies. These projects are expected to significantly increase Qatar's LNG export capacity within the decade, and ConocoPhillips has already made a deal to purchase 2 million metric tons per year of LNG from QatarEnergy for at least 15 years. Meanwhile, European countries like Germany are also in talks with QatarEnergy to secure additional supplies.