In Geopolitics Today - Thursday, August 12th
Central Asia Turns to Old Partners as the US Leaves Afghanistan and Turkish Gas Pipeline Could Cause Tensions in South Caucasus
Central Asia Turns to Old Partners as the US Leaves Afghanistan
With the ongoing departure of the United States from Afghanistan, regional players are recalibrating their positions as the anxieties of a Central Asia without US engagement set in. Swift Taliban gains have made officials in this region come to terms with the reality that a Taliban government is now a likely outcome for Afghanistan. Russia and China in particular will be looking to enhance their engagement with countries in this region following a reduced US presence, with each seeking to take advantage of the opportunity.
Russia is eager to shore up its influence in Central Asia, a region that for much of the 19th and 20th centuries was part of Russia’s security framework. The US withdrawal provides an apt opportunity for Russian officials to take an active role in determining the future of the region, an opening Russian officials are unlikely to ignore. This engagement is already underway, as demonstrated by Russia’s intention to reinforce its base in Tajikistan with 17 infantry fighting vehicles, and by conducting joint military exercises with both Uzbek and Tajik forces.
China is also stepping up its engagement with countries in Central Asia. China has considerable security concerns in the region because Tajikistan borders the unstable Xinjiang region in northwestern China, which Beijing fears could see an influx of foreign fighters following the US withdrawal. Furthermore, Beijing has made significant investments into its overland Belt and Road Initiative, which will depend on a stable Central Asia for the safe transit of trade goods. To mitigate these dangers, Chinese officials have recently negotiated a bilateral security agreement with Kyrgyzstan and are moving to enhance its presence in Tajikistan.
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Turkish Gas Pipeline Could Cause Tensions in South Caucasus
In December of last year, Turkish and Azerbaijani officials penned an agreement over the construction of a pipeline weeks after a ceasefire was agreed between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Construction of the pipeline is set to begin following Turkish and Azeri discussions to fast-track the project earlier this year. The pipeline is said to be designed to aid Azerbaijan with its gas supplies, which the country imports from Iran for the exclave of Nakhchivan. The pipeline will likely extend Turkey’s reach into the South Caucasus, raising concerns about Turkish encroachment for Russia and Iran.
The completion of the pipeline will mean that a 20-year agreement, under which gas supplies are traded between Tehran and the Nakhchivan region, will in all likelihood not be renewed. The gas link will, once completed, will have the effect of reducing Iranian influence over the exclave and form a platform upon which other infrastructure projects proposed by Turkey will further integrate Azerbaijan with Turkey. The central aim of these infrastructure projects is to open a corridor for the transit of trade goods and energy resources between the Azeri exclave of Nakhchivan and Azerbaijan proper.
The pipeline to Nakhchivan, coupled with a proposed railroad project, will together cause unease in Moscow and Tehran. These two powers have long enjoyed an influential position in the Caucasus and will likely oppose direct Turkish encroachment on their interests. Going forward, there will likely be increased competition in this region, as each power jostles for favourable deals to secure their interests.
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