In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, August 18th
The Restraint of Malaysia and Indonesia to China’s EEZ Incursions, Energy Sanctions On Russia a Positive for China And India, and other stories.
The Restraint of Malaysia and Indonesia to China’s EEZ Incursions
Recent years have seen an increase in incursions made by Chinese vessels into disputed waters of the South China Sea, particularly in the waters that Malaysia and Indonesia consider to be part of their exclusive economic zone (EEZ). For Malaysia, these are waters off the coast of Sabah and Sarawak, and for Indonesia, the waters north of the Natuna Islands. Both these regions intersect with Beijing’s “nine-dash line” — an area Beijing claims as an exclusive Chinese maritime jurisdiction.
The intensity of the encroachments has been motivated by the discovery of oil fields in Kasawari and Tuna Block. In response to increased maritime assertiveness by Beijing, the Malaysian and the Indonesian navies have chosen to exercise restraint by merely shadowing Chinese vessels rather than forcing them to leave. By exercising restraint against Chinese vessels in these waters, Malaysia and Indonesia have tacitly consented to China’s actions. Although China’s claims have little international legal backing, it would be difficult for both Malaysia and Indonesia to change Beijing’s view, thus presenting a difficult choice for leaders in Jakarta and Kuala Lumpur — anger Beijing through confrontation or maintain positive ties by exercising restraint.
Read more about this story here.
Turkish and Ukrainian Leaders Meet with UN Secretary-General
Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelenskyy hosted Turkey’s president and the UN Secretary-General in a high-stakes bid to discuss the war effort, reconstruction efforts, boost grain exports and secure the safety of Europe’s largest nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia.
Turkey, Ukraine and the UN are not capable of bringing about a political settlement to the war. For that to happen, the United States, the European Union and Russia must all step forward to reconcile their interests in Ukraine, a scenario that remains highly unlikely. Nevertheless, the Turkish government continues its delicate balancing act of maintaining good relations with both Russia and Ukraine, seeking to avoid a confrontation with Russia at a vulnerable time for the Turkish economy. Ankara is grappling with a major economic crisis, and the loss of trade with Russia or the loss of access to Russian energy supplies is an unacceptable outcome in economic terms for Turkey.
Read more about this story here.
Energy Sanctions On Russia a Positive for China And India
When the EU, the UK and the US all approved sanctions that made trade in Russian oil problematic, leaders vowed that Russia could not possibly replace the loss of these revenues from elsewhere. However, Russian crude has been trading at a steep discount since March, and this has been a major opportunity for China and India to take advantage of the sanctions to access cheap Russian oil.
Both China and India have been eager buyers of discounted Russian oil for months now. Russia has become China’s largest oil supplier, overtaking its OPEC+ partner Saudi Arabia. Similarly, Russia has also overtaken Saudi as an oil import destination in India, this redirection of Russian oil flows has made Russia increasingly reliant on the two countries for selling its crude oil, with China and India now accounting for more than 40 percent of Russian oil exports. A similar dependency is present on the other side of the trade as Beijing and New Delhi need cheap energy to maintain their respective economic growth targets.
Read more about this story here.
US Preparing to Expand Missile Defence Infrastructure in Guam
The United States is making progress in establishing upgraded air and missile defences on the strategic island of Guam. The US overseas territory of Guam is home to critical air and naval facilities, and is currently seeing an expansion of its military infrastructure to better be able to serve offensive operations in the region.
Currently, the US possesses limited ballistic and cruise missile defence capabilities on Guam in the form of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system battery and a unit equipped with the Israeli-made Iron Dome system. The kind of missile defence capabilities sought after by US military strategists as they prepare to take on China are said to be distributed, including assets that may be stored beyond the island itself. To improve survivability in a high-end conflict scenario, the US is looking to separate and disperse missile launchers from their associated sensor systems.