In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, August 31st
Saudi Arabian Investment Firm Funds US Green Energy Tech, The UK Attempts to Stabilize Bilateral Ties with China, and other stories.
Shifting Paradigms in US Military Strategy
The United States military has been evolving its approach to address the challenges posed by gray-zone warfare and continuous competition in the modern security landscape. Starting with the Joint Concept for Integrated Campaigning in 2018, a series of documents have outlined a paradigm shift emphasizing the use of military power below the threshold of armed conflict to achieve broader national security objectives. This departure from traditional operational planning tools aims to enable the US to counter dynamic and opportunistic adversaries more effectively.
While the evolution of military doctrine is a step in the right direction, there's a need for a more comprehensive perspective to address the full spectrum of competition. The current approach, centred around adversaries and force-centric planning, may not be sufficient to navigate the complexities of modern competition. An interest-focused, alignment-centric approach will help address issues beyond direct conflict, where aligning interests and relationships across a diverse array of nations becomes crucial. The challenge lies in balancing the existing force-centric mindset with this new approach, fostering interagency collaboration, and adapting to a changing security environment characterized by cyber warfare, information operations, and other non-traditional threats. The US government appears to be gearing up for a competitive landscape that is not confined to conventional military actions, but extends to economic, diplomatic, and cultural realms, is crucial for effectively navigating the challenges of the future.
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Paraguay, Brazil, Bolivia, and Uruguay Ask Argentina to Halt River Toll
During the XLIX Meeting of the Intergovernmental Committee of the Paraguay-Parana Waterway in Bolivia, Paraguay, Brazil, Bolivia, and Uruguay voiced their objections to Argentina's collection of tolls on the Paraná River Waterway. The countries called on Argentina to cease this practice until tangible evidence demonstrates that the tolls are justified by effective navigation services. They also urged Argentina to guarantee freedom of navigation and transit, and avoid adopting further restrictive measures. In response, Argentina acknowledged the claims and submitted technical information to demonstrate services rendered in the Parana River section. The dispute underlines concerns over navigational rights in the region and has prompted discussions on involving an Arbitral Tribunal.
The ongoing dispute over toll collection on the Paraná River Waterway highlights complex geopolitical dynamics in the South American region. The disagreement reflects broader tensions among the neighbouring countries, particularly as they seek to assert their navigational rights and interests along crucial waterways. The demand for Argentina to halt toll collection underscores concerns about the economic impact of these tolls on trade and competitiveness in the region. Additionally, the willingness to resort to arbitration suggests a concerted effort to seek a formal resolution to the dispute. As economic and strategic interests intersect, the situation could potentially lead to further diplomatic negotiations and discussions on regional agreements to safeguard navigational freedom and equitable access to waterways.
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Saudi Arabian Investment Firm Funds US Green Energy Tech
Energy Capital Group (ECG), a Saudi Arabia-based investment firm, has made an undisclosed investment in Pure Lithium, a company based in the United States that specializes in lithium metal batteries. Pure Lithium's proprietary technology extracts lithium from oil field brines and aims to establish an integrated supply chain in Saudi Arabia. This investment aligns with Saudi Arabia's efforts to diversify its energy sector.
Saudi Arabia's investment in Pure Lithium underscores the growing interest of oil-rich nations in diversifying their portfolios and investing in clean energy technologies. The partnership between ECG and Pure Lithium highlights the potential for innovative lithium extraction techniques, such as direct lithium extraction (DLE), to profit from the battery materials industry. DLE technologies offer faster lithium extraction, potentially reducing the current lead time for EV battery production. As the world shifts towards electric vehicles and renewable energy, securing a reliable and sustainable supply of battery materials like lithium becomes a strategic priority. The growth of the DLE industry also has significant environmental and sustainability benefits, as it reduces water consumption and offers greater control over material extraction.
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The Resurgence of the Global South in Geopolitics
Historically overshadowed, the global South—comprising mostly poorer and decolonized countries—has re-emerged on the geopolitical stage. While previously united by ideals of solidarity, the global South's recent resurgence is driven by pragmatic national interests rather than shared moral purpose. This trend is evidenced by new coalitions like BRICS and individual state actions that collectively challenge the great powers and influence global dynamics.
The global South's resurgence represents a departure from its historical role as a marginalized entity. Unlike earlier idealism-driven movements, this iteration of the global South is defined by realistic alignment of individual state interests. The rise of coalitions like BRICS reflects the growing influence of middle powers, whose desire for strategic autonomy and a greater global role is intensifying. As these states assert themselves, their collective impact is proving greater than the sum of their parts. The renewed prominence of the global South is not just symbolic, but has tangible implications. These states' focus on trade, investment, and strategic partnerships indicates their pursuit of national development and influence. Their rejection of traditional power dynamics, as seen in their engagement with both the West and countries like China and Russia, underscores their pragmatic approach to global affairs. Their dissatisfaction with under-representation in international institutions is pushing them to seek greater autonomy and influence through diverse channels.
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The UK Attempts to Stabilize Bilateral Ties with China
The United Kingdom's Foreign Secretary James Cleverly has embarked on a visit to China, signalling an attempt to stabilize bilateral ties that have experienced strain due to a range of issues. This visit underlines the complexities of the bilateral relationship, which have been strained by concerns over Hong Kong, Beijing’s alignment with Russia, and the UK’s alignment with the United States on China policy.
The visit of the British Foreign Secretary to China underscores the intricacies of modern diplomacy in managing relationships amidst multifaceted challenges. As the UK acknowledges the difficulties that have arisen, the diplomatic engagement demonstrates a nuanced approach that emphasizes both dialogue and cooperation amidst systemic competition. The parliamentary report's recommendation for a coherent strategy and the call for “deterrence diplomacy” reflect the UK's efforts to respond strategically to China's evolving role in the global order.
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US Expands AI Chip Export Restrictions
The United States has widened export restrictions on high-performance artificial intelligence (AI) chips produced by Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), expanding beyond China to encompass certain Middle Eastern countries and other regions. The decision reflects heightened concerns about safeguarding critical AI technology from Chinese access and influence. Nvidia's A100 and H100 chips, integral to AI applications such as ChatGPT, have been added to the no-export list, while AMD is also expected to face similar restrictions.
The extension of export limitations on advanced AI chips signifies the deepening struggle for technological dominance between the United States and China. As both countries vie for supremacy in AI and semiconductor technology, export controls emerge as a means to protect national security interests. The restriction coincides with recent developments, including the invitation of several Middle Eastern nations to join BRICS, a group of emerging economies that includes China. The move suggests the US is actively monitoring and responding to geopolitical shifts that could alter global power dynamics. The ongoing tit-for-tat measures reflect a broader trend of strategic competition that encompasses technology, trade, and alliances, underscoring the evolving landscape of international relations in the age of technological interdependence.