In Geopolitics Today - Thursday, December 2nd
China Engaged in a Standoff with Indonesia Over Drilling Rights and Outside Powers Contend for the Future of Libya
China Engaged in a Standoff with Indonesia Over Drilling Rights
China and Indonesia have been engaged in a standoff over an oil rig planted in a part of the South China Sea which both countries claim as their own. In recent years, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam have come under Chinese pressure to end energy development projects in areas of the South China Sea claimed by Beijing. Given that Indonesia has not overtly conflicted with China’s far-reaching maritime claims until now, reports of the standoff may be a sign of a growing diplomatic spat between Beijing and Jakarta over claims in the South China Sea.
The standoff is said to have begun sometime in late June when a semi-submersible Indonesian rig arrived on the scene and begin drilling two wells approximately 140 nautical miles north of Great Natuna Island. According to reports, China has informed the Indonesian government to cease drilling operations for oil and natural gas here on the grounds that the region was “Chinese territory.” In response to continued drilling operations, China sent a military vessel to patrol in the vicinity of the rig, thereby reminding Jakarta of its nine-dash line claim to the South China Sea. But Indonesia, a country with close economic ties to China, has not ceded ground, and has sent military vessels of its own to tail Chinese vessels around the area.
The move suggests that China is determined to press its sovereignty claims in far-flung areas of the South China Sea, even if such moves risk souring relations with Southeast Asian partners. Beijing has been making frequent incursions into Indonesia’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ), incursions which have prompted the Indonesian government to bolster its military presence on Great Natuna Island. If the reports are true, Indonesia finds itself in a difficult situation. Considering that China is Indonesia’s biggest trade partner, and that investment under the Belt and Road Initiative has significantly boosted economic activity in the country, Jakarta must approach these incursions by China delicately. So far, officials in Jakarta have not raised alarm over Chinese activities, but it may not remain that way for long if keeping the issue of out the limelight means ceding sovereignty of its EEZ to Beijing.
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Outside Powers Contend for the Future of Libya
More than a decade after the overthrow and death of Muammar Gaddafi, Libya remains fragmented as conflict between various local warlords and internationally-backed mercenaries continue between eastern and western regions. But with the military situation in the country at a stalemate, both local and international forces are attempting to facilitate presidential elections at the end of the year. Yet with the country deeply divided, and with international power brokers casting a large shadow over the entire electoral process, the promise of a stable Libyan state seems far-fetched.
As the choice of candidates is largely in the hands of outside powers, there remains considerable doubt the election will solve the chaos that has consumed the country since the 2011 UN intervention. After all, holding elections while foreign fighters continue to clash on behalf differing interests is deeply problematic for the stability of the country going forward. Nevertheless, there is a drive to install a much-needed set of political institutions even if the candidates are being cherry-picked by those best positioned to influence matters on the ground. For the moment, the leading candidates for the presidency are Saif Gaddafi, General Haftar, Fathi Bashagha, Ali Zeidan, Abdulhamid al-Dbeibah and Aguila Saleh.
But because every single candidate has been accused of corruption or war crimes at various times in the past decade, the UN may choose to block any or all of these candidates. The UN is overseeing the election process and is considered a legitimate mediating force which is attuned to the interests of its major contributors. In effect, the UN appears to have a veto on any candidate that might prove disruptive. There have already been local complaints that the UN is seeking to block any presidential candidate unwilling to cooperate on terms acceptable to foreign powers. Moreover, there seems to be no consensus about the kind of powers that will be bestowed on the presidency. Nevertheless, the UN appears to be determined to go ahead with the elections despite these challenges, even if the outcome may prove unpopular with most Libyans or the Arab world.
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