In Geopolitics Today - Thursday, December 9th
Maximum Pressure has Failed to Overthrow Maduro and Energy Competition in the Eastern Mediterranean
Maximum Pressure has Failed to Overthrow Maduro
US sanctions against Venezuela were seriously escalated by the Obama administration, which called out Caracas as an “extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States.” When Trump came to power, his administration adjusted the sanctions regime to one driven by a policy of maximum pressure: cutting oil-rich Venezuela off from the international energy market its economy depends on. Yet despite tough sanctions and unrest, enduring pressure from the US has failed to trigger regime change or bring the Maduro government to its knees.
Washington’s faith in strict sanctions has not only failed to bring about desired outcomes in Venezuela, but may also have contributed to a range of undesirable side effects harmful to US interests in Latin America. Maduro’s popularity seems to have grown and his party — the United Socialist Party of Venezuela — recently made firm gains in regional elections as his coalition won 20 of the 23 governorships available, and now even holds the mayoralty of Caracas. This comes after Maduro was able to secure control of 256 of the Venezuela’s National Assembly’s 277 seats during elections last year, which meant that the former interim President of the Venezuela National Assembly, Juan Guaido, lost his regional and law-making seats. Guaido had been a favourite of the United States and some of its allies to lead opposition, but now seems to have fallen out of favour as even the EU no longer recognises him in any official capacity.
Even the near-collapse of Venezuela’s economy due to harsh US sanctions has done little if anything to erode Maduro’s grip on power. Now, some economists estimate that Venezuela’s economy will achieve anywhere between 5 and 10 percent growth this year. If the country returns to consistent economic growth, Maduros position will prove an increasingly difficult one to topple. Maduro has been extremely successful in this regard, surviving immense political and economic pressures from the US by obtaining considerable support from Russia, China, Iran and Cuba. And this is perhaps the most unfavourable outcome in Venezuela for Washington, attracting Russia, China, and Iran to a region under Washington’s traditional hegemony.
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Energy Competition in the Eastern Mediterranean
Discoveries made over the last two decades in the Eastern Mediterranean’s Levant Basin have confirmed that the region’s continental shelf contains rich gas reserves. The key fields with considerable reserves are off the coasts of Egypt, Israel, and Cyprus, and development has been swiftly launched on several fields. Yet on the whole, this process has been slow due to multiple disagreements between countries in the region in the absence of clearly demarcated maritime borders. Nevertheless, as more energy projects approach completion, countries which have for long imported gas and oil may soon see domestic energy production rise.
While some states in the Eastern Mediterranean have attempted to form alliances around the energy sector, Turkey has remained on the side-lines as it seeks to forge a unilateral foreign policy toward the matter. The conflicting aims of Turkey on the one hand and Israel, Egypt, Cyprus and Greece on the other increasingly contribute to the militarization of the Eastern Mediterranean. The scramble to exploit the energy potential has laid bare rifts in Europe as well, with Italy deepening ties with Turkey while France builds up its military presence in Greece to counter Turkey’s objectives. As this rush over energy continues, the issue overlaps with other, more established regional issues such as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Greek-Turkish disagreements and the Cyprus question, all complicating relations between all those involved.
But with no honest broker ready and willing to solve the many intractable issues which dominate energy politics in the Eastern Mediterranean, the risk of a miscalculation rises. Exacerbating mistrust and undermining security here are the differing claims to the maritime space on top of the very different visions of the region offered by the relevant actors. There remains considerable mistrust and little diplomatic contact, an environment which is not conductive to effective solutions to the many critical issues plaguing the region. To remedy this insecurity, it is reasonable to expect regional powers to employ the assistance of outside influences in order to achieve goals in the Eastern Mediterranean energy market. Outside power brokers could create an avenue for building confidence in resolving maritime disputes and regional security arrangements.
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