In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, December 5th
Syrian Rebels Seize Strategic City of Hama, Iran Deploys Forces to Syria as Hezbollah Withdraws, and other stories.
UAE Scales Up Armoured Vehicle Production
UAE armoured vehicle manufacturers have dramatically scaled up output, with STREIT Group reaching 500-vehicle monthly capacity. Major producers NIMR, INKAS, and Calidus have expanded facilities since 2018, using the UAE's competitive labour and special economic zones. Saudi Arabia will open a 960-vehicle annual capacity plant in 2025, while Qatar and Oman pursue manufacturing partnerships.
Production capacity far exceeds domestic requirements, forcing Gulf manufacturers to target export markets. Their vehicles now serve in nine African countries, advancing regional influence alongside commercial gains. Yet this industrial expansion faces fundamental constraints — Gulf firms remain unable to compete in advanced weapons systems, while market saturation threatens profit margins. Current trajectory suggests some manufacturers will exit the sector as competition intensifies.
Read more about this story here.
Syrian Rebels Seize Strategic City of Hama
Anti-Assad rebels seized Hama on December 4 after surrounding the city from three sides, gaining control of its military airbase and freeing prisoners from state detention facilities. The capture marks their second major victory after Aleppo, extending rebel control along Syria's main western highway toward Damascus.
Hama's fall spotlights Assad's eroding military position as external support diminishes. Russian airpower, critical to regime survival since 2015, remains focused on Ukraine. Iranian assistance faces constraints from commitments to Hezbollah and Houthi operations. While regime forces mounted fierce resistance around Hama, including Syrian-Russian airstrikes and tank deployments, they ultimately withdrew south toward Homs. The rebels' position athwart the coastal highway now threatens to isolate Russia's Mediterranean bases at Latakia and Tartus from the rest of Syria — a strategic vulnerability that could further reduce Moscow's ability to prop up Damascus.
Read more about this story here.
Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Talks at Constitutional Roadblock
Armenia and Azerbaijan stand at a critical juncture in their peace process. Talks have yielded concrete progress — border demarcation advances and prisoner exchanges — but face a decisive hurdle over Nagorno-Karabakh's constitutional status. For Azerbaijan, Armenia's formal renunciation of claims represents the final step to cementing its 2023 victory. For Armenia, Prime Minister Pashinyan must balance peace prospects against domestic opposition ahead of 2026 elections.
The regional power structure adds urgency. Russia's diminished role has pushed Armenia toward Western security partnerships, concerning Turkey and Azerbaijan, who seek to maintain their strategic corridor to Central Asia. This intersection of domestic politics, constitutional demands, and shifting alliances creates a narrow window for peace — with campaign season approaching in mid-2025, the opportunity for transformative agreements may soon yield to hardline positions.
Read more about this story here.
Ukraine Breaches Ottawa Treaty with Banned Landmines
The US decision to supply anti-personnel landmines to Ukraine represents a significant breach of international arms control frameworks. Ukraine's public embrace of these weapons — with Zelenskyy openly acknowledging their intended use against Russian forces — marks its first clear violation of the 2005 Ottawa Treaty obligations. While both sides have allegedly deployed mines throughout the conflict, Ukraine previously maintained plausible deniability.
The implications reach beyond Ukraine's borders. With 40% of Ukrainian territory already mine-contaminated, the influx of new anti-personnel weapons will compound long-term civilian risks. More significantly, Ukraine's justification of treaty violation under self-defence signals a drift toward Kriegsraison doctrine — where military necessity overrides international law. This erosion of arms control norms sets precedent for other conflicts, potentially legitimising the use of prohibited weapons when parties face existential threats. The muted international response further weakens humanitarian law foundations, raising the prospect of escalation to other banned armaments.
Read more about this story here.
Iran Deploys Forces to Syria as Hezbollah Withdraws
Iran has rapidly deployed military advisors and Iraqi proxy forces to Syria following Hezbollah's withdrawal to Lebanon, where the group faces an uncertain ceasefire with Israel. Foreign Minister Araghchi's Sunday meeting with Assad in Damascus underscores Tehran's urgency to prevent further erosion of its regional influence, though its replacement forces lack Hezbollah's proven combat effectiveness that was vital to Assad's survival since 2011.
This strategic shift creates opportunities for rival powers. National Security Advisor Sullivan's carefully worded response suggests U.S. willingness to tolerate developments that weaken the Iran-Syria axis. For Israel, the disruption of Iranian regional connectivity through Syria represents a potential strategic gain, with Turkey's expanded role possibly serving as an effective counterweight. The speed of Iran's intervention reveals both Tehran's vulnerability and determination to maintain its position in Syria, even as Hezbollah's absence fundamentally alters the military balance.
Read more about this story here.
US A-10s Strike Iranian Militias in Eastern Syria
A-10 Warthogs struck militia positions in eastern Syria on December 1, escalating US military involvement along the Iraq-Syria border region. The strikes targeted Iranian-backed forces near al-Mayadin and Deir Al Zor — critical transit points connecting Iranian proxies between Iraq and Syria. Kurdish SDF forces simultaneously intensified operations in these areas while establishing evacuation corridors from Aleppo.
The deployment of A-10s indicates heightened military pressure on Iranian-backed groups in eastern Syria. This comes as regional powers vie for control over key supply routes following recent rebel advances in western Syria. The strikes demonstrate how the area between the Euphrates River and Iraqi border has become a crucial battlespace where US, Turkish, Kurdish, Iranian, and Syrian government interests directly intersect. Control of this region carries significant implications for Iranian influence across the Levant.