In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, December 14th
EU Opens Door to Ukraine's Membership, India Demands Billions From Ex-Gazprom Firm Over Gas Shortfalls, and other stories.
EU Opens Door to Ukraine's Membership
The EU agreed to open accession talks with Ukraine, a major step towards the nation's goal of eventual membership. The decision came after Hungary dropped objections that risked exposing cracks in European backing. While calling it a “bad decision”, Orbán said Hungary wouldn't stand in the way if the other 26 states moved ahead. The shift followed his earlier veto threats over both accession and a proposed €50 billion EU aid package.
Formally launching the multi-year membership process signals strong symbolic support for Ukraine. But securing financial assistance remains contentious, with splits over bolstering shared budgets. Still, the win provides hope in Kiev after the US Congress stumbled on approving further military aid. Zelenskyy hailed the accession progress as a victory for Ukraine and all of Europe. As fighting continues, the EU's embrace keeps economic incentives alive for enduring reforms long-term. Candidate status was also granted to Moldova, Bosnia, and Georgia.
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UK, Italy and Japan Finalize Plans on Future Stealth Fighter Jet
The UK, Italy and Japan signed a landmark agreement to jointly develop an advanced sixth-generation stealth fighter jet under the auspices of the trillion-dollar Global Combat Aircraft Programme by 2035. The deal will see the UK ultimately host the governmental and industrial leadership, while Japan and Italy lead the two headquarters respectively to start. It constitutes a major leap towards fielding a future combat platform and fostering deeper defence-industrial ties between.
Beyond the military significance, closer collaboration holds geopolitical import as well. The pact sees the UK strengthen its connections across the Indo-Pacific region amid efforts to articulate a clearer strategic vision post-Brexit. For Japan, the alliance with the US remains paramount, but multi-way defence cooperation helps enhance security options as threats mount. While additional partners may join down the line, Japanese reticence over Saudi advances suggest a deliberately cautious expansion. Still, the three countries have committed to ambitious joint development intended to yield a highly capable, interoperable stealth jet over the coming decade.
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India Demands Billions From Ex-Gazprom Firm Over Gas Shortfalls
India's largest natural gas company Gail is demanding up to $1.8 billion in compensation from German supplier SEFE (formerly Gazprom Germania) for failing to deliver contracted liquefied natural gas cargoes last year. The dispute stems from sanctions severing Russian gas flows to Europe.
SEFE, nationalized by Berlin in November 2022, was formerly a Gazprom subsidiary handling nearly half of German gas imports before sanctions. It then prioritized sourcing gas for Germany over existing long-term supply contracts like the 20-year Gail deal. The resultant shortfalls in India forced Gail to buy far pricier LNG on spot markets, causing major financial losses and inability to meet customer demand. Gail argues SEFE's trading arm GMTS was obligated to replace cancelled Russian cargoes from other sources. GMTS disputes responsibility, citing Russian sanctions as a force majeure event.
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Brazil Seeks Gains Through Venezuela-Guyana Mediation
President Lula da Silva is leveraging Brazil's ties with both Caracas and Georgetown to mediate rising border tensions over the resource-rich Essequibo region claimed by Venezuela. How deftly Brasília navigates crisis diplomacy carries high stakes for its regional and global ambitions.
Lula criticized the recent referendum. With Brazilian troops mobilizing near the frontier, his advisors are shuttling between capitals urging de-escalation. Brazil touts non-violent credentials, qualifying it to mediate thorny conflicts. But its neutrality principle and past failed mediations invite scepticism. Regional instability clearly jeopardizes Brazil's bid to lead the Global South and secure a permanent UN Security Council seat. Lula must therefore balance competing imperatives along Brazil's tense border. Effectively preventing confrontation would support Brasília's case for elevated multipolar influence.
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Report Urges US Recalibration to Compete With China in Latin America
The United States needs to recalibrate its economic strategy towards Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) to compete effectively with China's growing influence in the region. A new report argues the US has lacked a cohesive approach, reacting to crises rather than proactively countering Beijing's inroads over the last 20 years.
China has catapulted from a marginal player in LAC to the number two trading partner and dominant foreign investor in major economies. The report charts China's shift from securing the region's commodities to exporting finished products and embedding state firms in strategic sectors like 5G technology. The US retains geographic and cultural advantages. But limited engagement has opened doors for Chinese infrastructure and telecoms giants, forging durable ties. With shrewd recalibration, the US can leverage its ecosystem of public and private resources.
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South Korea and the Netherlands Align on Chips and Security
South Korea and the Netherlands are expanding their “strategic partnership”, focused largely on closer semiconductor supply chain cooperation. During a state visit, leaders called it a “real win-win” as Korean nuclear power firm KHNP signed a contract to study building two nuclear plants in the Netherlands.
The countries also agreed to increase collaboration on artificial intelligence, communications and quantum computing. The pacts bolster existing linkages between Korean chipmakers and Dutch equipment giant ASML. In parallel, South Korea's defence minister met NATO representatives from 8 members to discuss countering North Korean threats. While unlikely to significantly advance technological progress, the outreach tentatively aligns South Korea with Western groupings pushing for a US-led alliance in Asia similar to NATO.