In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, December 1st
Technology Central to China’s Strategy Towards GCC Countries, Iran’s Leverage over Russia Remains Limited, and other stories.
Technology Central to China’s Strategy Towards GCC Countries
Tech collaboration has become a powerful catalyst in furthering China’s engagement with the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Trade between China and GCC countries has risen from about US$1.5 billion in 1990 to US$180 billion in 2019.
In a few decades China has shifted its focus on energy deals with the region and pushed forward with establishing technological ties with GCC countries. Now, China represents an estimated 11 percent of the bloc’s foreign trade, making China the GCC’s foremost trading partner. With GCC countries pursuing an economic diversification strategy that emphasizes collaboration with China in AI and data, China will expand its influence in countries that have previously been longstanding US allies.
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Raytheon Wins $1.2 Billion Surface-to-Air Missile Contract for Ukraine
The United States has granted a $1.2 billion contract to Raytheon Technologies Corporation for the construction of six National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS), which are to be delivered to Ukraine as part of a total of eight such NASAMS systems.
Ukraine has requested an integrated air and missile defense system. The system, being prepared by Ukraine’s NATO allies and Israel, is to be made up of short-range, low-altitude systems; medium-range, medium-altitude systems; and long-range, high-altitude systems, that altogether promise to neutralize the threat of Russian aircraft and missiles.
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Argentina's Shale Industry is Growing
Oil and gas producers in Argentina's Vaca Muerta shale formation are experiencing rapid growth. While this promises increased revenues, Argentina's political, infrastructure and economic challenges may prevent Buenos Aires from reaching its energy exploitation goals.
Although the government has struggled to reach previous shale production targets, the Vaca Muerta formation remains the most attractive shale patch outside of North America. This makes it a realistic project for Argentina to increase production. Yet despite Argentina's potential, energy development here may be mired by corruption as well as economic and political challenges.
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India Invites Egypt to G20 Summits
India has invited Egypt to participate as a guest in G20 meetings taking place during New Delhi’s yearlong presidency of the intergovernmental forum. The Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed the invitation, saying the move reflects historical ties between the two countries’ leaderships, governments and peoples.
This is not the first time that Egypt will participate in G20 meetings. It was also a guest country of the forum during China’s presidency in 2016 and in 2019 during Japan’s presidency. Egypt will expect to benefit from its participation in G20 meetings during India’s presidency as a means to align its interests with one of the key international organizations and have its national interests represented in discussions with the largest economies in the world.
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Iran’s Leverage over Russia Remains Limited
In the Middle East, Russia has developed close relationships with two US allies who are rivals of Iran — Saudi Arabia and Israel. In both cases, closer Russian-Iranian ties introduce new tensions and challenges for Moscow in managing these relationships.
The closer Russia moves to Iran, the greater the chance that Saudi Arabia ends its cooperation with Russia to reduce oil production via the OPEC+ format. This alliance has served to keep oil prices high. Similarly, Russian-Iranian closeness is likely to complicate ties between Israel and Russia, as much of Israel’s current focus falls on Syria. To maintain positive ties, Russia has allowed Israel to operate with a relatively free hand in Syria.