In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, December 7th
US Throws Weight Behind Guyana in Border Crisis With Venezuela, Europe's Energy Transition Exposes Ongoing Rift Over Nuclear Power, and other stories.
US Throws Weight Behind Guyana in Border Crisis With Venezuela
The United States forcefully reinforced support for Guyana this week amid dangerous brinkmanship with Venezuela over the disputed Essequibo border territory. Secretary of State Antony Blinken explicitly upheld Guyana’s sovereignty following Venezuela’s referendum vote to annex resource-rich lands claimed by its neighbour.
Years of mounting tensions over offshore discoveries have come to a head. Much of Guyana’s future economic hopes rest on ExxonMobil’s massive deepwater drilling operations, which Venezuela now threatens through coercive diplomacy. But President Ali warns his country will defend its sovereign territory. He is rallying international pressure while underscoring Guyana’s expanding web of regional security partners. The clear stance from Washington backs President Ali’s appeals for tougher action to deter Caracas.
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Russia Engages Gulf Allies on Mutual Interests
Russian President Vladimir Putin this week travelled to Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The outreach aims to secure Gulf cooperation on issues like oil policy and sanctions evasion, while mitigating their concerns over Russia's increasingly close ties with Iran. However, the trip may work to strain ties with Washington for Riyadh and Abu Dhabi.
Lingering regional wars render dependence on US security assurances heavier, while complicating Russia's expanding military collaboration with their rival Iran. Suspicions persist on all sides. But with Europe still Moscow's prime focus, a delicately balanced Gulf remains critical to Russia blunting Western pressure. Still, behind Putin’s confidence likely lies appreciation that enduring Gulf ties hinge on avoiding the overt provocations of security dilemmas. Both sides know that if Moscow weaponizes energy and markets anew, or lets Tehran adopt an irredentist agenda, quietly pragmatic relations will fade as quickly as they appeared.
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Europe's Energy Transition Exposes Ongoing Rift Over Nuclear Power
The European Union expanded its list of endorsed green technologies this week to include nuclear energy, earning a swift rebuke from leading renewable advocate Germany. The move aims to strengthen Europe's security of supply while competing with foreign industries. But it reveals lingering divisions over acceptable approaches to the climate challenge.
Germany succeeded in securing concessions enabling ongoing synthetic fuel investments crucial for its auto sector. Yet discord persists among members over nuclear risks and wastes. The dilemma highlights how infrastructure legacies and political cultures complicate agreements on transforming complex energy ecosystems. Now the law heads toward a contentious vote in the European Parliament, where divergent national interests collide. While the framework should ease permitting for priority supply chains, disputes over the proper complexion of sustainability threaten to overwhelm that progress.
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Europe's Defence Lag Heightens NATO Vulnerability
NATO's European flank risks dangerous exposure if a future US-China clash draws forces westward. The dilemma emerges as Russia marshals its military for a long war, while European rearmament and military spending fail to match the urgency. Transatlantic fears centre on Chinese asymmetric advances eroding US superiority in the Pacific by 2026-2028 as Russian output slowly recovers.
The concurrent threats could leave Moscow perceiving strategic openings to test NATO resolve amid doubts over Washington's reinforcement capacity. Much now depends on Europe accelerating munitions stockpiles and air defence procurement to deter the temptation. However, NATO cohesion requires planning for simultaneous pressures between theatres and avoiding miscalculation will demand coordinated vigilance as the global order realigns. Proactive resilience measures against plausible nonlinear scenarios can bolster deterrence across regions. But that requires leaders confronting known mismatches of perception, speed, and will on all sides head on.
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Turkey Seeks Greece Ties Amid Mounting External Pressures
Turkish President Erdoğan this week pursued an unlikely restart of strained Greek relations amid Ankara's increasing regional isolation. His surprise outreach followed years of sabre-rattling rhetoric over maritime borders and energy disputes that pitched NATO allies toward conflict.
Both sides now recognize an opportunity. Practical agreements signed on migration, trade, and tourism set the stage for crisis management after recent airspace violations and rhetoric raised wider Mediterranean tensions. Yet fully escaping external pressures requires not just reciprocal confidence-building measures, but sustained restraint. With economic and refugee challenges looming, Erdoğan may decide conciliation serves to ease external squeezes. But the longer-term test remains Turkish policy aligning interests — and actions — with Greece rather than working across purposes.
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US Oil Export Surge Spotlights Market Power
America's record oil and gas production this year defies domestic calls for restraint, instead allowing booming exports to fill supply voids abroad. Seaborne US crude volumes have hit all-time highs in 2022, fuelled by a 19% increase. Much of the excess serves Europe, as continent-wide bans erase Russia's market share.
The shifts showcase energy market realities at odds with political rhetoric. While the Biden administration presses publicly for a green transition, global disruptions grant the United States pivotal influence as a supplier of last resort. In effect, past import reliance now makes way for fortuitous export dominance. But the largess results largely from European desperation. With Germany embattling recession and household budgets strained continent-wide, demand for replacement barrels runs in contrast to ideals of accelerating decarbonization.