In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, December 29th
The United States Looks to Uzbekistan in its Central Asia Policy, Transboundary Water Governance a Regional Security Issue in Asia, and other stories.
Nationwide Unrest Continues to Paralyze Peru
Peru is experiencing nationwide anti-government protests following the removal of President Pedro Castillo, who attempted to shut down Congress to avoid an impeachment vote. The current president, Dina Boluarte, has called for early elections to quell the unrest, but has also refused to resign despite ongoing protests.
Six police generals were recently arrested as part of an investigation into corruption that Castillo is alleged to have been involved in. The crisis has deepened the instability in the country, which has seen six presidents in six years and a number of ex-presidents imprisoned for crimes committed during their time in office. In addition to political instability, Peru also faces significant issues such as poverty, inequality, corruption, and a lack of access to basic services.
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The United States Looks to Uzbekistan in its Central Asia Policy
The United States recently held a meeting with Uzbekistan, the most populous country in Central Asia, as part of its Strategic Partnership Dialogue. The stated objective of US policy in Central Asia is to support “sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity,” but in practice this means limiting Russia's trade activity, limiting local participation in China's Belt and Road Initiative, and opposing the Taliban in Afghanistan.
Uzbekistan is trying to create distance between itself and Russia, and has voiced political support for Ukraine in addition to providing non-lethal aid. However, Russia is still the top trade partner of Uzbekistan, and the two countries have deep business ties. Uzbekistan is seeking most-favoured-nation status with the US, which it believes will put it on a path of reform and help make up the progress that has been lost due to sanctions on Russia. The US may look to support Uzbekistan's accession to the World Trade Organization and help it develop its energy sector.
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Transboundary Water Governance a Regional Security Issue in Asia
The Tibetan Plateau, also known as the "Asian water tower," is a significant source of water for nearly 2 billion people in Asia, as it feeds into 10 major rivers in the region. Climate change is causing significant long-term impacts on the region's water cycle, including warming temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns, and shrinking glaciers.
By 2100, it is estimated that over one-third of Hindu Kush-Himalayan glaciers will have melted, and major Asian transnational rivers' glaciers will have shrunk by more than 20%. This will cause a temporary increase in water in the north but a decrease in the south, leading to potential water scarcity and the risk of conflict over shared access to water. It could also worsen humanitarian, economic, security, and environmental concerns in the region.
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China’s Expanding Influence in Thailand
Chinese nationals are buying a significant amount of property in Thailand, with over 2,000 units being transferred in the second quarter of 2022, representing a 27.6% increase from the previous year. In addition to acquiring property, Chinese buyers are also seeking to gain influence in Thailand through the media, academia, technology, law enforcement, military, and foreign policy.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and CCP-backed businesses have a strong presence in Thailand, with the country holding joint military exercises with China and supporting the One China Policy. The CCP's influence has also been linked to Thailand's drug crisis and the involvement of Chinese crime bosses in the country. Thailand's close history with China, including a large Chinese population, has made it easier for the CCP to exert its influence in the country.
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Unnamed NATO Country Orders 155mm Ammunition
Rheinmetall Denel Munition (RDM), a joint venture between German defence and technology company Rheinmetall Waffe Munition GmbH and South African state-owned firm Denel, has been awarded a contract to supply 155mm ammunition to an unnamed NATO country.
The M2005 HE V-LAP projectile has a high fragmentation effect and extended range, and can be used against soft targets and vehicles as well as to disrupt logistical supply lines beyond the immediate battlefield. It is compatible with NATO standard fuses and modular charge systems and can be fired from any compatible 155mm weapon system.