In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, February 8th
Turkey and Somalia Expand Defence Ties, Russia's Black Sea Fleet Adapts to Asymmetric Naval Warfare, and other stories.
Turkey and Somalia Expand Defence Ties
Turkey and Somalia signed a defence cooperation agreement amid tensions in the Horn of Africa over Ethiopia's deal with breakaway region Somaliland. The new Turkey-Somalia military deal covers areas like counterterrorism, military finances, joint exercises and intelligence sharing. It showcases deepened defence ties between the two nations, with Turkey backing Somalia's territorial integrity publicly.
Turkey and Somalia are fortifying their longstanding defence partnership during a volatile period in the Horn of Africa. Somalia hosts a Turkish military base and depends on Turkey's security assistance. The recent visit by Somalia's Defence Minister also discussed regional issues, reflecting shared commitments to African stability. The agreement comes as Somalia contends with threats from Al-Shabaab militants and factional clashes. Turkey has aided Somalia's armed forces through training, equipment, and reconstruction support. Enhanced naval collaboration is also expected.
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Kosovo Targets Serbian Enclaves
Tensions are rising again in Kosovo amid aggressive actions by the nationalist government in Pristina against Serbian administrative structures. With Kosovo's statehood still only partially recognized internationally, its prime minister is cracking down on autonomy arrangements for Serbian areas, which Belgrade continues to support.
Kosovo's recognition remains limited. With recognition declining recently and no solution for the minority rights dispute, the prospects for sustainable stability in appear endangered. While Serbia rearms and references strategic patience, the US arms Kosovo with advanced anti-tank missiles. Risks of miscalculation are rising amid the dangerous ethnic tensions being exacerbated rather than resolved under current conditions. Preventing another potential conflict in the heart of Europe requires careful diplomacy that the nationalist government's current approach damages.
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Egypt's Ras El-Hikma Land Sale to the UAE
The Egyptian government has confirmed that Emirati investors purchased a Mediterranean beach town, Ras El-Hikma, in a $22 billion deal. With Egypt's national currency plunging 50% against the US dollar on black markets in the past year, the government hopes to finalize a potential $10 billion IMF bailout. This would likely require painful reforms like currency devaluation.
While marketed domestically as an economic bailout, the agreement carries regional implications. It risks inflaming grievances around inequitable divisions of wealth and power, and perceptions the government prioritizes Gulf investor relations over debatably better options that would retain key assets locally. Given existing Gulf divisions, the Ras El-Hikma deal may widen rifts if more Arab allies grow uneasy with states like the UAE benefiting at others' expense. With Egypt heading towards further IMF austerity, parting with public coasts while living standards plunge also risks considerable local backlash.
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Russia's Black Sea Fleet Adapts to Asymmetric Naval Warfare
Russia's Black Sea Fleet (BSF) had clear naval supremacy over Ukraine at the start of the conflict, but this was quickly contested by Ukraine's anti-ship and drone capabilities, forcing the BSF into a more defensive posture. The BSF's scope of operations has now expanded from offensive strikes to also protecting infrastructure and shipping from asymmetric attacks.
Looking ahead, the BSF will likely become more littoral-focused, with emphasis on small missile corvettes and boats equipped with long-range cruise missiles for sea denial roles. The conflict accelerated existing trends towards bolstering nimble coastal defence forces over high seas assets. Budget and industrial constraints also favour this direction. The BSF has adapted to match Ukraine's hybrid naval warfare tactics, transitioning to a force apt for protracted attritional conflict. Its future composition will be shaped by lessons from defending against missiles and drones.
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Proliferation Risks Vary Among Lethal Autonomous Weapons
The spread of lethal autonomous weapons systems (LAWS) capabilities appears inevitable, given the dual-use nature of underlying technologies and perceived military advantages. However, not all LAWS pose equal risks — their proliferation likelihood and destabilizing impacts differ significantly across categories.
Simple homemade LAWS using commercial components have high proliferation chances, especially among actors seeking asymmetric tools. Individually they may have limited effects, but employed en masse could still challenge well-equipped military forces. More sophisticated military-grade LAWS are rapidly advancing as well, proliferating among state militaries that can afford them. The most advanced bespoke LAWS being developed by top militaries pose the greatest destabilization threats, given their potential to negate key strategic capabilities. LAWS advantages and proven effectiveness will likely override constraints driving further adoption over time.
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Global Regionalization Defies Unipolar Order
The ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza demonstrate the failure of a unilateral US primacy framework to impose outcomes, with smaller nations successfully defying US-backed force. Opposition arises less from a rival superpower peer than the increasing independence of “middle powers” that resist the global order in favour of local interests.
This “regionalization” dynamic has been enabled by the way the US post-9/11 attempted to exempt itself from global rules and norms during the War on Terror. Reduced legitimacy of the system meant many sought alternatives to a framework granting Washington arbitrary power to dictate terms. Ukraine exemplifies US inability to rally the world behind its narrative of upholding international principles. A significant non-Western bloc refuses alignment based on neutrality considerations rather than favouring Russia. Gaza also shows waning US influence over even allies and clients.