In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, February 23rd
China and ASEAN in Talks on a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea, The Prospects of Nuclear Fusion, and other stories.
China and ASEAN in Talks on a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea
Negotiations on a Code of Conduct (COC) for the South China Sea will be intensified by China and Southeast Asian countries this year, as announced by Indonesian and Chinese officials yesterday.
The COC, which aims to reduce the risk of conflict in the disputed waterway, will be negotiated between ASEAN and China next month, with Indonesia coordinating as this year’s ASEAN chair. The COC will incorporate principles from the non-binding Declaration of Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) into a binding framework for dispute resolution. The negotiations will take place amidst growing tensions in the South China Sea, and it is unlikely that a COC will be completed in the near future.
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Iraq to Settle Trade with China in Yuan Instead of US Dollar
The Iraqi central bank plans to allow trade with China to be settled directly in yuan instead of the US dollar to improve access to foreign currency. This move aims to compensate for a dollar shortage in local markets and would boost the balances of Iraqi banks with accounts with Chinese banks.
Many nations in the Global South have started to move away from the US dollar in bilateral trade with China. Iraq’s central bank is now considering two options to boost local banks' yuan balances, depending on the size of the central bank's yuan reserves. Last year, the US Treasury and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York enforced stricter controls on international transactions by Iraqi commercial banks, which sent the economy reeling.
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Kenyan Opposition Leader Calls for Nationwide Protests
While speaking before a rally of thousands of supporters, Kenyan opposition leader Raila Odinga called for nationwide protests within two weeks if the government does not reduce the cost of living crisis. Odinga seems to be leveraging public frustration over economic difficulties.
In the August 2022 election, Odinga, who was Ruto's opponent, accused the government of withdrawing food subsidies that Kenyans needed to reduce the cost of essential goods. Furthermore, Odinga requested that the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission servers be opened, and a reputable international firm perform an audit of the results, which Odinga alleges were stolen from him. With Odinga maintaining a considerable support base across Kenya and the slim likelihood of Ruto satisfying opposition demands within the timeframe, Odinga's call to action will probably lead to nationwide demonstrations in March.
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Oman Opens Airspace to Israeli Airlines
Oman has announced that it will open its airspace to all airlines that meet its civil aviation authority's safety requirements, which will enable Israeli aircraft to fly through its skies.
Israel's Foreign Minister Eli Cohen welcomed the decision and said it will help Israeli airlines to be more competitive and shorten the road to Asia. Oman and Israel do not have diplomatic relations, but they have reached a degree of rapprochement, and Israeli officials have hinted that Oman could join the Abraham Accords. Oman's airspace has been a topic of discussion between the United States, Israel, and Oman for the past two years.
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The Prospects of Nuclear Fusion
The US Department of Energy has announced that it achieved nuclear fusion ignition for the first time on December 5, 2022, using the National Ignition Facility (NIF) at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California. Scientists have been studying fusion energy as a possible zero-carbon energy source for over a century, and its development could have significant benefits.
The NIF's experiments use 192 high-energy lasers to heat a gold capsule containing deuterium and tritium isotopes to create a self-sustaining fusion reaction. The While the NIF's breakthrough is significant, there are still many scientific and engineering challenges to overcome before fusion power can be commercialized. Other labs are also pursuing fusion energy using different approaches, and start-ups are exploring ways to combine both methods.