In Geopolitics Today - Thursday, February 24th
Russia Initiates Massive Military Operations in Ukraine, Ukraine Requests Turkey Close its Maritime Straits to Russian Ships, Severe Sanctions on Russia Imminent as Economic War Intensifies
Russia Initiates Massive Military Operation in Ukraine
Russia has launched a massive military operation across the entirety of Ukraine, with a multitude of attacks and explosions taking place throughout the country. In the early hours of the morning, Russian forces began conducting sabotage and cyberattack operations on Ukrainian infrastructure as its ground and air forces prepared for offensive operations on the territory of Ukraine. These attacks were followed by an offensive across the entire line of contact in Eastern Ukraine, land incursions from Belarus and Russia in the North and South of Ukraine, and forward-deployed airborne units which were air-dropped with the aim of taking key strategic facilities.
The Russian use of military forces will have severe repercussions for European security going forward. With diplomatic efforts now abandoned following the cancellation of a potential summit between US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin just a day before, the use of a wide array of tools at the disposal of the Russian military marks a turning point from which it will be difficult to return. Significant incursions have already taken place, with Russian forces reportedly making gains against fierce resistance. Nevertheless, information on the ground in an active warzone will be difficult to verify, with both Ukraine and Russia possessing a critical interest in downplaying their own losses and amplifying those of their enemy. The shock emanating from the Russian military operation has already pushed the price of oil up more than 5% to $102 per barrel, caused the ruble to fall by more than 6%, and Moscow’s stock exchange to suspended all trading following a sharp downturn.
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Ukraine Requests Turkey Close its Maritime Straits to Russian Ships
Ukraine has made a formal request of Turkey to close both the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits to Russian ships. Kiev’s ambassador to Ankara made the request while Russia launched a massive military campaign across Ukraine’s territory, seeking to limit the number of Russian warships in the Black Sea with the assistance of Turkey. But the request puts Turkey in a difficult position.
Under the 1936 Montreux Convention, Ankara has direct control over the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits, and possesses the legal means to limit the movement of warships during wartime or if the country is threatened. The Convention guarantees the free passage of civilian vessels in peacetime and restricts the passage of ships not belonging to countries bordering the Black Sea. While in wartime, Turkey has the legal authority to close the straits to all foreign warships and refuse transit for merchant ships from countries at war with Turkey. At the same time, the Convention guarantees the rights of Black Sea nations to use the passages if they notify Turkish authorities ahead of time, so a request from Ukraine to close the straits to Russia may prove difficult to justify given Turkey is not under direct threat. As such, Turkey has not responded to the request, and it is unlikely that Ankara would pursue such a course of action given the uncertainties associated with seriously damaging ties with Russia.
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Severe Sanctions on Russia Imminent as Economic War Intensifies
Over the past two days, the United States and its allies have embarked on a coordinated effort to incur harsh costs on Moscow with sanctions. An intensification of this effort appeared after President Vladimir Putin recognized the independence bids of territories held by separatists in eastern Ukraine, which has now starkly escalated with large-scale military operations across Ukraine’s territory. Following Russia’s large-scale incursion into Ukraine’s territory, leaders in the US, UK and EU are all preparing a series of harsh sanctions targeting all sectors of Russia’s economy.
Now, leadership in the US, the UK and the EU are all looking to drastically increase costs for Russia by escalating an ongoing economic war between the two sides. US, UK and EU leaders have made commitments to freezing Russian assets, halting Russian banks’ access to European financial markets, and other sanctions targeting Russia’s interests. This will have wide-ranging economic impacts, with Russia likely to respond by taking actions of its own by intentionally causing turmoil in energy markets. Russian officials have already threatened that Europe should prepare for sky-high gas prices for the foreseeable future, and this area is one where Russia may choose to retaliate. The threat of a full economic war means that agricultural, metals and hydrocarbons markets — all industries where Russia is a considerable player in — are all likely to be highly volatile in the months ahead.
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