In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, February 16th
The US Working with Allies on Information Warfare in the Indo-Pacific, Iran to Purchase Sukhoi Su-35 Fighter Jets from Russia, and other stories.
The US Working with Allies on Information Warfare in the Indo-Pacific
The US is working with its allies, including the "Five Eyes" intelligence-sharing partners, to share information warfare techniques in the Indo-Pacific region. Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK, and Japan are among the countries that are either establishing or interested in partnering in information warfare programs.
Information warfare involves offensive and defensive electronic capabilities and cyber operations, combining data awareness and manipulation to gain an advantage before, during, and after battles. The US sees having allies in the arena as powerful, particularly in the Pacific, and the Biden administration's Indo-Pacific strategy document emphasizes the need to deepen interoperability and deploy advanced warfighting capabilities.
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Uncertainty over the Future of Nuclear Arms Control
The NEW START Treaty, which is the last Nuclear Arms Control Treaty between the United States and Russia, is set to expire on February 5, 2026. The recent breakdown in negotiations between Russian and US officials has made it uncertain whether this agreement will be renewed.
China is building up its nuclear reserves with ground, submarine, and air-launched weapons and has developed its technology to provide a credible first-strike capability using its Fractional Orbital Bombardment System. The rise of nuclear powers like India, Pakistan, and Israel and the withdrawal of North Korea from NPT with its nascent nuclear weapons program add to the concern of non-proliferation. Negotiations for arms control agreements can take years or decades, as seen throughout the history of arms control.
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RANE Report Assesses Risks and Opportunities in Multipolar World
The latest RANE Network Intelligence Report provides an assessment of risks and opportunities across four areas of focus, including geopolitics, legal and regulatory compliance, cyber and information, and physical safety and security.
The report addresses the challenges presented by the emerging multipolar world, characterized by the decline of Western-led institutions, the rise of alternative lending institutions and business norms, the growing protectionism in cyberspace, environmental policies, and sanctions requirements. The report suggests that organizations need to evaluate and mitigate various risks to their physical security and improve their due diligence practices to avoid legal or reputational blowback.
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Transatlantic Security Implications of Sino-Russian Military Alignment
A new report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies discusses the relationship between China and Russia as they seek to challenge what they perceive to be a Western-dominated world order that constrains their strategic goals. While they share this common objective, the report also notes that there are obstacles that prevent them from forming a wholehearted alliance.
The study looks at the writings of Chinese and Russian strategic thinkers and explores Sino-Russian cooperation across four main areas: arms sales and technology transfers, military exercises, space and cyber warfare, and hybrid tactics. The report notes that strategic thinkers in both China and Russia recognize the widening gulf between their economic and technological capabilities. The report also discusses the increased engagement of China and Russia in joint military exercises, which is expected to continue. While both China and Russia recognize the importance of hybrid warfare in contemporary geopolitics, for now, they lack a shared strategy of how best to counter the hybrid capabilities employed by the US and its allies.
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Iran to Purchase Sukhoi Su-35 Fighter Jets from Russia
Iran is planning to buy Sukhoi Su-35 advanced fighter jets from Russia, as part of the deepening relationship between the two countries, and after similar contracts were cancelled by other nations under US pressure. The aircraft are expected to arrive in Iran sometime after March this year.
The purchase will enable the modernisation of the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force, as the country has not acquired any new fighter aircraft in recent years (with the exception of a few Russian MiG-29 Fulcrum fighters), and relies heavily on overhauled US-made planes. The Su-35s could also lay the foundation for further cooperation in defence production between Russia and Iran, and will represent one of the most important results to come thus far from the lifting of Iran’s arms embargo.