In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, February 29th
Indonesia's Nickel Boom Poses Dilemma for EV Makers, Internet Cables Between Europe and Asia Damaged, and other stories.
Indonesia's Nickel Boom Poses Dilemma for EV Makers
Indonesia has come to dominate the global nickel industry in just over a decade with low-cost output, now supplying over half the world's nickel and projected to control up to 75% by 2028. The country's massive expansion relied on Chinese investment and innovation. But the oversupply glut is pushing the nickel price down nearly 70%, threatening higher-cost mines in Australia and beyond with closure. Unable to compete, producers urge governments to distinguish “dirty” nickel based on carbon intensity.
With EV manufacturers demanding responsibly sourced minerals, Indonesia's coal-powered nickel bonanza makes the European auto industry dependent on materials from they now deem to come from unethical operations. The dilemma shows how corporate actors compromise sustainability standards through raw material imports. As essential technologies like EVs and batteries hinge on reliably accessing niche metals like nickel, the supply chain risks grow. For Western countries already lacking mining capacity, breakthroughs enabling affordable low-carbon domestic sourcing remain distant dreams.
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US Isolated as UN Court Scrutinizes Israeli Offensive
The chasm between the United States and Global South on Israel-Palestine has widened in a critical case at the International Court of Justice. Of 49 nations arguing for or against an advisory opinion on Israeli occupation, only the US and three allies challenged jurisdiction amid near-unanimous condemnation of current Israeli assaults. Multiple countries accused Israel of apartheid and genocide.
The isolated US stance spotlights security and economic openings for ascendant rivals Russia and China to expand ties by leveraging anti-Western grievances. As they cement a BRICS coalition backing multipolarity, hundreds of millions view them as upholding Palestinian rights ignored by Washington support for Israel. With suffocating violence and US complicity radicalizing Arab streets, policymakers in Washington appear to be underestimating the diplomatic blowback from an unconditional defence of Israeli aggression that sacrifice moral leadership across Africa, Asia and Latin America.
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Iran's Ballistic Missile Transfers to Russia Signal Deepening Alliance
Reports have emerged that Iran recently supplied Russia with around 400 long-range ballistic missiles, enabling intensified strikes across Ukraine. This marks unprecedented military cooperation as part of a burgeoning strategic partnership between Moscow and Tehran. Two factors have motivated Iran's shift from earlier missile transfer caution: the expired UN arms embargo now allows legal missile exports; and deteriorating Iran-US nuclear talks diminished incentives to avoid Russian entanglements.
In return for missiles and drones, Russia is supplying Iran with fighter jets, attack helicopters and potential joint production opportunities. The two also signed a major free trade pact and have a 20-year cooperation agreement in the works. While not an outright alliance, their informal axis backs multipolarity over US dominance. For Iran, it means profit and reduced reliance on rapprochement with the US. As nuclear talks with Washington stall, Tehran pivots definitively towards Russia and Asia, forfeiting reconciliation. While divergence endures over interests, unprecedented military and economic bonds signify the staying power of an axis fuelled by mutual antagonism with the US.
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EU-Funded Senegalese Police Unit Implicated in Violent Crackdown
An investigation reveals that an elite 300-member Senegalese police unit, funded and trained by the EU, was deployed by the Senegalese government to violently suppress protests. Video and photographic evidence shows the unit, known as GAR-SI, using armoured vehicles provided by the 7 million euro EU project to fire tear gas at a protest convoy last year.
The report also exposes issues around the unit's mandate, as a confidential EU evaluation found GAR-SI is sometimes deployed jointly with other Senegalese security forces on vague “internal security” missions ordered verbally, lacking oversight. Controversially, the EU has expanded support for Senegal's government amid the protests and reports of dozens killed. The news comes as a Spanish Civil Guard general faces fraud charges for mismanaging up to 13 million euros from the regional GAR-SI project budget.
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Mercosur Chief Rules Out EU Trade Deal This Year
Hopes for a landmark EU-Mercosur trade pact remain stalled according to pessimistic remarks this week from Paraguay's president, whose nation currently holds the rotating presidency of the Latin American economic bloc. Santiago Peña blamed reluctance within Europe as talks drag on over long-simmering agriculture import disputes, which have inflamed domestic farm sectors.
Yet the narrow focus on tariffs obscures broader complications testing the ability of South American nations to reach consensus on opening markets. China's spreading regional influence introduces new trade pathways less dependent on transatlantic ties, potentially diminishing internal urgency around the deal. Meanwhile, political currents oppose market liberalization in general. And upcoming Brazilian elections could install leadership less amenable to concessions needed for compromise. With negotiations inert for now, both sides risk economic blowback from lagging adaptation to global realignments. But each side also faces internal divides over which path integration should follow amid regional transformations.
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Internet Cables Between Europe and Asia Damaged
Multiple news outlets are reporting that Yemen's Houthi rebels have damaged four undersea communications cables between Saudi Arabia and Djibouti. The cables are operated by several telecommunications companies including AAE-1, Seacom, EIG and TGN. Only Seacom has officially confirmed damage to its cable, while other companies have yet to determine the cause. However, the Houthis' military spokesperson has denied targeting submarine telecommunications infrastructure, saying the group aims to avoid putting international cables and services at risk.
This sabotage has disrupted internet connectivity between Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, with the greatest impact likely being felt in Gulf nations and India. Repairing so many cables could take up to eight weeks, according to estimates. However, continued attacks on merchant shipping in the Red Sea risk preventing repair attempts. The location of the damaged cables near the geographic choke point of Bab-El-Mandeb also leaves any repair vessel vulnerable to additional strikes. If carried out by the Houthis, this demonstrates the rebels' expanding asymmetric naval warfare capabilities and willingness to threaten global trade and communications networks to gain leverage.