In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, February 2nd
Australia Facing a Strategic Fuel Security Crisis, Germany Seeks to Diversify its Lithium Supply, and other stories.
Australia Facing a Strategic Fuel Security Crisis
Australia is facing a fuel security crisis due to its reliance on oil-based fuels for national transport systems and its limited and declining sovereign refining capability. The country has enough fuel to last 68 days based on current demand and usage rates, but a supply shock could increase consumption rates dramatically.
A recent parliamentary inquiry has identified shipping lane disruptions as a tactical response challenge to be met by alternative sourcing. To address this issue, Australia needs to invest more in fuel security, including boosting diesel storage, upgrading refineries, and encouraging the development of sustainable aviation fuels and biofuels. A radical paradigm shift is needed, which involves taking a portion of every budgeted defence capital expenditure item and allocating it to fuel-security projects.
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Russia's Influence in Africa: A Summary of Recent Reports
Russia has established a military presence and signed military-technical agreements with over 20 African countries, while securing lucrative mining and nuclear energy contracts on the continent. Moscow views Africa as a key vector of its post-Western foreign policy and is known for supporting authoritarian regimes. Despite this, Russia's approach is viewed as a driver of instability and its soft power has declined.
According to a report by the South African Institute of International Affairs, Russia's renewed interest in Africa is driven by a quest for global power status. However, its security engagement with the continent is not expected to bring considerable development to African countries. Another report by Ovigwe Eguegu, a Nigerian policy analyst, argues that Russia's use of private military companies for military diplomacy in Africa is high-risk, low-reward, and has limited impact.
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Germany Seeks to Diversify its Lithium Supply
Germany aims to reduce its dependence on China for lithium, a critical material used in batteries for electric vehicles, through partnerships with the world's largest lithium producers, Chile and Argentina.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visited the Latin American countries and signed agreements for cooperation in areas such as technology, energy, and sustainable mining, along with memorandums of understanding to boost German access to lithium resources and reduce dependence on China. The move is part of Germany's broader strategy to reduce its strategic dependencies on critical raw materials, as the German economy is heavily dependent on China for inputs used in electric vehicle motors. The lithium demand is expected to surge by 42 times by 2040, and Germany wants to reduce its reliance on China within the broader context of US-led efforts to limit the presence of Chinese companies in the Latin American Lithium Triangle.
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Spain and Morocco Building Economic Ties
Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez is in Rabat, Morocco, to meet with Morocco's Prime Minister Aziz Akhannouch. The meeting, the first in almost 8 years, will result in the announcement of a credit line of 800 million euros for Spanish investments in Morocco and 20 agreements aimed at boosting trade and investment.
Warming relations between the two countries has been made possible by Spain’s support of Morocco's autonomy plan for Western Sahara in March 2022, leading to a strengthening of economic ties. Although some fear Algeria may disrupt gas flows to Spain over this support, those fears have not yet materialized. The diplomatic truce between Spain and Morocco came after a series of diplomatic crises between the two. Spain’s decision to recognize Western Sahara as Moroccan territory also led to a reaction from Algeria, worsening ties between Algiers and Madrid.
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Jamaica Offers to Send Troops to Haiti
Jamaica's Prime Minister, Andrew Holness, has offered to send soldiers and police officers to Haiti as part of a multinational security assistance deployment. This is the first public offer of support by a Western Hemisphere nation, after Haiti requested international armed forces in October.
Haiti is currently facing a rise in violence, poverty, hunger, and a cholera outbreak, all with limited support from the international community. Despite backing from the UN Secretary-General and the UN special envoy for Haiti, the UN Security Council has not taken any action on Haiti’s request for military and humanitarian aid, instead sanctioning a number of individuals involved in the disruptions and little else. Jamaica's offer of support comes as the Caribbean Community of states issued a statement urging stakeholders to resolve the protracted political stalemate in Haiti.