In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, January 4th
US and Allies Warn Yemen Rebels Over Attacks on Red Sea Shipping, Norms Against Assassination Fray, and other stories.
US and Allies Warn Yemen Rebels Over Attacks on Red Sea Shipping
The United States and eleven allies have issued a warning to Yemen’s Houthi rebels, demanding an immediate halt to attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea. The statement threatens unspecified consequences if strikes persist, while the US military has prepared potential options for direct strikes on Houthi launch sites, radar, and weapons storage facilities.
The current escalation risks miscalculation and wider conflict, while disrupting vital trade routes, including energy shipments to Europe. Key regional players have complex equities — Saudi Arabia backs the internationally recognized Yemeni government against the Houthis, but also maintains informal ties. As tensions rise, Russia and China likely stand to strategically benefit from distracting and weakening the US and allies mired in conflict. All sides face decisions potentially deepening instability or opening a chance for de-escalation.
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US Drone Strike Targets Militias in Iraq
A US drone strike in Baghdad has killed a senior commander of an Iraqi militia and two others. The attack targeted the headquarters of Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba, part of the umbrella group known as the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF). No party has claimed responsibility yet, but Iraqi officials blamed the US-led coalition forces.
The killing comes amid rising regional tensions since the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas in October. Iran-aligned Iraqi militias have conducted over 100 attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria in recent months, vowing to force American troops out. The U.S. has carried out retaliatory strikes. Iraqi leaders condemned Thursday's drone attack as a “dangerous escalation and aggression” and violation of sovereignty. The strike also follows Israel's alleged assassination of a senior Hamas leader in Lebanon this week. More destabilization could ensue if attributed to the U.S. or allies. But ambiguity around culpability carries its own risks, as militias vow revenge.
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Norms Against Assassination Fray
In recent weeks, Ukraine and Israel have seemingly openly acknowledged conducting assassinations against some of their enemies. A Ukrainian intelligence spokesman confirmed the “liquidation” of a former Ukrainian MP who had fled to Russia after being convicted of treason in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the head of Israel's Shin Bet security service allegedly vowed to eliminate Hamas members wherever they are found, including Turkey and Qatar.
These public announcements of assassinations constitute a departure from norms where such targeted killings were either plausibly denied or conducted covertly without official acknowledgement. They come in the context of a gradual erosion of constraints on assassination over the years. Factors enabling this shift include the expanded use of armed drones, killings justified under counterterrorism, operations in lawless areas, the concept of “implausible deniability,” and Western tolerance for allies' actions. The end result is a deterioration of norms in international affairs, mixed messages that feed perceptions of hypocrisy, and lowered barriers for aspiring powers considering extraterritorial assassinations in pursuit of national interests.
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NATO Inks $5.6 Billion Patriot Missile Deal
NATO has announced a $5.6 billion contract to procure up to 1,000 Patriot air defence missiles for European allies including Germany, the Netherlands, Romania, and Spain. The deal aims to help replenish stockpiles depleted by donations of Patriots to Ukraine. It also introduces Patriot production to Europe, with a new missile manufacturing facility to be established in Germany.
Expanding Patriot missile production into Germany hints at a wider effort by the United States to boost output and economies of scale for a platform in high demand. But the US force structure is limited, with stockpiles strained by transfers to allies. Enabling licensed manufacturing partners like Germany or Japan to scale domestic production helps mitigate dependence on direct US supplies during crisis. For recipient nations, owning some indigenous production also provides supply assurance. Meanwhile, Washington benefits from a more robust, distributed Patriot missile ecosystem.
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African Union Pushes Horn of Africa Rivals Toward Talks
Regional bodies like the African Union and influential powers like the United States are moving to defuse tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia in the wake of Addis Ababa's port access deal with the separatist Somaliland region.
The AU has issued an appeal urging calm and mutual respect between the Horn rivals, calling for negotiations without delay on their differences. Similarly, Washington restated its recognition of Somalia's territorial integrity and also pushed for diplomatic dialogue to resolve the crisis. Their coordinated messages indicate concerns over the deal's impacts on regional security and stability. With Somalia recalling its ambassador and threatening action over what it sees as infringements of its sovereignty, the risk of unintended escalation is real.
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US Embassy Eyes Growth Potential in Zimbabwe
The US Embassy in Zimbabwe has identified potential for the country to serve as a strategically advantageous economic growth hub for the wider Southern African region. This represents a shift in perspectives on Zimbabwe within American foreign policy circles. The designation appears aspirational at present, given Zimbabwe currently has little economic integration. The Embassy set no clear benchmarks that would mark Zimbabwe's rise as a growth driver.
Zimbabwe offers opportunities through substantial rare earth mineral resources used in technology manufacturing. However, its economy remains centred on natural resource extraction and export, with limited value-added production. There are mixed incentives for the US in directly enabling Zimbabwe's economic ascent. Rival powers like China and Russia maintain deep ties in the country. Nonetheless, the Embassy's long-term vision signals evolving geopolitical calculations regarding Zimbabwe's potential role. US strategy now appears to look beyond short-term risks or ideals to consider pragmatic economic engagement.