In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, January 26th
German Foreign Ministry Admits Country is at War with Russia, UN Command Finds North and South Korea in Violation of Armistice, and other stories.
German Foreign Ministry Admits Country is at War with Russia
In what appears to be an error in executing diplomatic protocol, Germany's Foreign Minister, Annalena Baerbock, recently stated that her country and Europe as a whole is in a “war against Russia” in Ukraine. Her statement was quickly met with other contradicting statements from her own government and other NATO countries, who have thus far avoided expressing they are direct participants in the regional border conflict
Her statement has so far been contradicted by the head of her own government, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who made sure to point out that Germany’s decision to send military tanks to Ukraine does not represent an act of war against Russia. France also rejected Baerbock’s declaration, and Germany’s Federal Foreign Office has attempted to walk back the comments from Baerbock, stating that supporting Ukraine’s war effort against Russia does not make Germany “a party to the conflict.”
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UN Command Finds North and South Korea in Violation of Armistice
The UN Command has conducted an investigation into airspace incursions between North and South Korea, determining that drone incursions made by both countries in recent weeks constituted violations of the ceasefire. However, South Korea's efforts to shoot down the drones in its airspace did not violate the armistice.
The UN Command emphasized that adherence to the terms of the armistice is essential to prevent escalation and preserve a cessation of hostilities on the Korean Peninsula. South Korea claims its use of drones along the North's border is a self-defence measure, while North Korea has not publicly commented on the incidents. Tensions between the two countries have been rising, with North Korea conducting a record number of missile launches and other weapons tests and South Korea conducting more military drills with the United States.
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South Asia in US Security and Defence Strategies
An assertive China in the Indo-Pacific and a revanchist Russia in Europe are highlighted in the latest US National Security Strategy and National Defense Strategy documents as direct threats to the US-led liberal international order. In these documents, South Asia falls marginally under Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy, and it is likely to remain so even amidst an evolving geopolitical environment.
US policy towards South Asia can be discerned primarily through the India-US partnership, which has been deemed vital for counterbalancing Beijing's presence in the Indian Ocean Region. At the same time, the US relationship with Pakistan appears highly transactional, depending on what Pakistan can offer for US goals in the region, and what the US can offer Islamabad in military and non-military assistance. Nevertheless, the primacy of the China challenge in US strategy has pushed South Asia lower in Washington’s list of priorities beyond bolstering ties with India.
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The Russian Army in 2023
The post-Soviet period has seen a reduction in the number of military personnel in Russia. Moscow has maintained that the Russian army should be quantitatively larger than any other army in the former Soviet space. However, socio-economic factors have impacted Russia’s ability to scale up the the size of its army. Now, Moscow is looking to boost
Accounting and organizational needs of the military leadership are believed to have played a major role in Moscow’s recent decision to increase the size of its army. However, reaching Moscow’s desired number of 1.5 million contract soldiers will be difficult due to a shortage of junior officers and a reliance on the poorest strata of the Russian population. Measures such as a new wave of unpopular conscription, stronger incentives for conscripts and regular soldiers to conclude contracts, and an increase in the term of the mandatory draft are some of the approaches Moscow will seek to implement in order to increase the number of servicemen.
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The US and the EU Discussing Deal on Minerals and Raw Materials
The United States and the European Union are reportedly in talks about a potential agreement on minerals and critical raw materials that would be treated as a free trade area. This deal would make it easier for European-made electric vehicles assembled in the US to qualify for tax credits under the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).
Such a deal between the two economic blocs would make it possible for electric vehicles assembled by European manufacturers in the US that use European-made components to qualify for the $3,750 in tax credit outlined in the IRA. The agreement may yet face legal challenges in the US due to the White House's lack of constitutional authority to sign trade deals. It is also uncertain whether courts would consider the "free trade area” a free trade agreement as cited in the IRA. Regardless of whether a compromise is reached, both sides will keep on increasing subsidies and protectionist measures to dominate the green tech industry.