In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, January 12th
Indonesia Challenges China’s Territorial Claims with Offshore Gas Project, How a US Microchip Ban is Curbing China’s AI Weapons, and other stories.
Russian Drawdown in Syria an Opportunity for Regional Powers
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has affected its presence in Syria, and how the power dynamics in the Syrian conflict may change as a result. It suggests that Russia has been forced to withdraw some of its forces and resources from Syria, and that this has led to Turkey gaining more power and influence in the region.
Iran may try to exploit the situation by deepening its strategic ties with Russia, and Israel may be caught in a difficult balancing act between its interests in Syria and the support of its allies. The United States may anticipate these shifting power dynamics and plan accordingly, as changes in the region's security dynamics have an impact on the United States' efforts to manage its relationships with Iran, Israel, Turkey and the Gulf states.
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Permanent Members of the UNSC Spar over African Influence
France and the United States have accused Russia of interfering in the internal affairs of African countries through the actions of Kremlin-backed military contractors, known as the Wagner Group, and increasing the likelihood of violent extremism in the Sahel region.
US and French officials at a UN Security Council meeting criticized the group for failing to address the threat of armed groups, robbing countries of resources, committing human rights abuses, and endangering the safety and security of UN peacekeepers and staff. Russia denied the allegations and accused the United States and other countries of doing the same in Africa, particularly in Libya.
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Indonesia Challenges China’s Territorial Claims with Offshore Gas Project
Indonesia's government has approved an offshore gas project in the South China Sea, known as the Tuna block, with a price tag of over $3 billion. The Tuna block lies in the waters between Indonesia and Vietnam, and could see peak production of 115 million cubic feet of gas daily by 2027, which will be exported to Vietnam.
This move can be seen as a direct challenge to China's territorial claims in the South China Sea, as the area is known to be rich in oil and gas reserves that China has been known to flex its military muscles in the area to assert its claims. Indonesia has had previous clashes with China in this area, and this move could put the two countries on a collision course, however, China is also Indonesia's biggest trade partner and source of investment.
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How a US Microchip Ban is Curbing China’s AI Weapons
The US Commerce Department has placed restrictions on the export of advanced microelectronics to China, effectively limiting China's ability to access advanced microchips and hinder its goal of becoming a global leader in artificial intelligence by 2030.
The export controls prohibit businesses such as TSMC from producing these sophisticated microchips in China, while allowing them to continue operating their production site in China, but only for lower-end semiconductors. Additionally, the Biden administration added Yangtze Memory Technologies Corp. and 21 other Chinese companies involved in the nation's AI microchip sector to the Commerce Department's export control list, and Congress passed a provision banning US defence companies from using Chinese semiconductors in critical weapons systems.
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Europe’s Largest Deposit Of Rare Earth Elements Found In Sweden
Swedish mining company LKAB has identified significant deposits of rare earth elements in the Kiruna area in Sweden, marking the largest known deposit of its kind in Europe.
Rare earth elements are crucial for the production of electric vehicles and other green technologies, and Europe currently does not have mining operations for these elements, leading to heavy imports, primarily from China. LKAB plans to apply for an exploitation concession this year, but due to the permitting process, it will likely be at least 10-15 years before mining can begin and raw materials can be delivered to the market.