In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, January 5th
Ukraine Set to Receive First NATO Armoured Vehicles from France, Colombia’s Cease-Fire with ELN Rebels Suspended, and other stories.
Ukraine Set to Receive First NATO Armoured Vehicles from France
France has announced that it will hold talks with Ukraine's defence ministry to arrange for the delivery of armoured combat vehicles. It is believed that this will be the first time NATO-made armoured combat vehicles will be given to the Ukrainian military. The talks are expected to cover the delivery timetable and training of Ukrainian soldiers on the equipment.
The AMX-10 RC, a light tank which carries a 105mm cannon and two machine guns, is primarily designed for reconnaissance missions and has enough armour to protect against light infantry weapons. It has wheels rather than tracks, making it more mobile than heavy tanks. The AMX-10 RC has been in service with the French military since 1981 and is gradually being replaced by a new model called the Jaguar.
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The US Opposes Regional Normalisation of Ties with Syria
The United States has warned Syria's neighbours against normalising ties with President Bashar al-Assad. Recently, the defence chiefs of Turkey and Syria held talks in Moscow, and Emirati Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed has met with Assad in the Syrian capital for the second time since November 2021.
Washington has repeatedly said it has no plans to “normalize or upgrade” its relations with the Syrian government, and does not support regional states doing so. Washington is looking to maintain pressure on Syria’s neighbours through the Caesar Act, which authorises broad penalties against anyone who provides support for Syria’s military operations or knowingly does business with the government.
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Afghanistan and Pakistan Exchange Cross-border Terrorism Accusations
The Taliban in Afghanistan has denied that it is allowing the Pakistani Taliban to operate within Afghanistan. This follows accusations made by Pakistan’s Defense Minister, Khawaja Asif, where he stated that Afghanistan was being used for “cross-border terrorism” by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).
The TTP has claimed responsibility for a number of attacks in Pakistan following the breakdown of a ceasefire in November 2022. The Afghan Taliban previously facilitated talks between TTP and Pakistani officials, however, the TTP has since broke the ceasefire in November and called on its fighters to attack "wherever you can" in Pakistan. The Afghan Taliban has now said it is "making utmost efforts" to ensure Afghanistan's soil is not used against Pakistan.
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Colombia’s Cease-Fire with ELN Rebels Suspended
The Colombian government has temporarily suspended a ceasefire with the National Liberation Army (ELN), one of the country's largest armed groups, after the group denied any agreement had been reached. President Gustavo Petro had announced on New Year's Eve that a temporary truce had been agreed with the ELN and four other armed groups from 1 January to 30 June.
The suspension comes as Petro attempts to bring an end to six decades of conflict, which has killed at least 450,000 people since 1985. The lack of clarity on whether or not a cease-fire was fully agreed upon is an instance of miscommunication between the armed group and government negotiators. The ELN issued a statement that it did not agree to the cease-fire, which may mean the group intends to continue fighting. This would mean more attacks by the group are possible in the coming weeks.
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The Growing International Space Debris Crisis
Orbital space is a dangerous and cluttered environment for humans and their machines due to the lack of atmosphere, extreme cold, and risks from radiation, meteorites, and space dust. There are many artificial satellites in orbit, with the number of new ones launched each year increasing rapidly. Many of these satellites have short lifetimes and become space debris.
Over the years, the accumulation of space debris has become a critical problem, with over half a million larger (at least 100mm) tracked pieces and over 120 million untracked smaller pieces in orbit. Debris poses a danger to operational satellites, can cause significant damage or destruction. While the chances of any satellite being hit by debris remains low, the risks are expected to increase as more debris accumulates.