In Geopolitics Today - Thursday, July 1st
US Foreign Affairs Experts Weigh in on Exit From Afghanistan and Turkey’s Dance Between the US and Russia
US Foreign Affairs Experts Weigh in on Exit from Afghanistan
Foreign Affairs has approached dozens of individuals who are seen as authorities wielding specialised expertise in the field of US foreign policy, and posed them a survey question regarding the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan. Participants were asked to state whether they agreed or disagreed with the following proposition: the United States is right to withdraw all its military forces from Afghanistan. This broad survey on the policy issue of Afghanistan is a rare birds-eye glimpse of the perspectives of some prominent figures in US foreign policy.
Among those that strongly agrees with the proposition is strategist Edward N. Luttwak, who is confident that the United States should have left Afghanistan six months after the initial 2001 invasion. In a similar vein, “But better late than never,” says international relations realist John Mearsheimer, who also takes a swipe at the American foreign policy community in his brief statement.
But there are some who strongly disagree with the proposition as well, and those who hold such a view beat out those who strongly agree in number by a single individual. One such perspective from this camp comes from the president of the Brookings Institution, John R. Allen, who says that the withdrawal from Afghanistan will diminish the ability of the US and its allies to “leverage events on behalf of the Afghans.” Former US Commander of Coalition Forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, David Petraeus, fears that the United States will “deeply regret this decision.” He concludes that the right course would be to maintain a sustainable commitment working in tandem with the Afghan forces.
I’ve spoken here about a few of the more polarised opinions from those surveyed, and there is a healthy number of differening views that lie in-between these two contrasting positions on the proposition. If you’re interested in exploring what other prominent figures of the US foreign policy community think on the issue, as well as some of the justification statements accompanying their positions, I would suggest clicking the link below.
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Turkey’s Dance Between the US and Russia
The recent meeting between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and President Joe Biden appears to be more spin than substance. While both leaders agreed in their recent meeting that Turkey would take a lead role in securing the Kabul airport amidst a US withdrawal, they were apparently not able to resolve the thorny issue that has strained ties between Washington and Ankara — Turkey’s purchase of the Russian S-400 system.
Dimitar Bechev, writing for the The Royal United Services Institute, argues that Ankara wants to retain good relations with the US, — despite the hostile rhetoric of recent years — while at the same cooperating with Moscow where their interests coincide. He notes that there will be of opportunities for the Kremlin to score points in the future and that the relationship is most notably driven by economic concerns, particularly tourism.
There were many tests to the Russia–Turkey relationship over the last few years, but ties have proven resilient even when the interests of the two Black Sea powers collide. As Bechev notes, the relationship withstood three major tests over the course of 2020 alone: Syria, Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh. In all these conflicts, each power supports different sides and each has differing geopolitical aims, yet ties have not significantly deteriorated.
Simply put, Turkey is playing both sides to maximise its geopolitical gains. Its attempting to deal with Russia on its own terms by leveraging the country’s position in NATO as well as its strategic significance to the US. At the same time, Turkey works in tandem with Russia much to the chagrin of policymakers in NATO member states.
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