In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, July 21st
The US Seeks a Change in Mexico’s Energy Policies, Armenia to Withdraw Troops from Nagorno-Karabakh, and other stories.
The US Seeks a Change in Mexico’s Energy Policies
The United States is applying pressure on Mexico to change its energy policies. Washington has made clear that Mexico’s state-owned electricity and oil companies receive favourable treatment over American energy companies, and argues that this is in violation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).
The US is demanding talks with the Mexican government to resolve the dispute, while at the same time initiating a process that threatens trade sanctions against Mexico. Mexico’s president, López Obrador, has tried to prop up Mexico’s indebted state oil company and boost state revenues, but this trend is now being checked by the US government. AFTA’s dispute mechanisms stipulates that the consultation phase for negotiations must begin within 30 days. If agreement is not reached after 75 days of discussions, the US is likely to request intervention that could result in sanctions against Mexico.
Read more about this story here.
Iraq Summons Turkish Ambassador after Artillery Attack in Kurdistan
The Iraqi Foreign Ministry handed a protest note to the Turkish ambassador condemning the deadly bombardment which killed and injured dozens of civilians in Duhok province’s town of Zakho, and demanding the withdrawal of Turkish forces from Iraqi territory.
Turkey’s foreign minister has denied that Ankara carried out the attack, and issued a statement condoling the Iraqi people for their loss and suggesting the attack was carried out by a terrorist group. Turkish forces sometimes carry out ground operations, airstrikes, and artillery bombardments in Iraq's Kurdistan, especially in the Qandil Mountains. This area now has a number of Turkish bases which supply the Turkish military’s ongoing offensive against the Kurdistan Workers Party.
Read more about this story here.
China and Russia Lead in Africa’s Nuclear Development
A number of states in Africa are exploring nuclear power as a source of power generation, with China and Russia at the forefront of this activity. Both China and Russia have been expanding their nuclear energy sectors even as nuclear falls out of fashion elsewhere in the world. Bringing expertise and lenient contracts, both countries are finding favourable conditions for investments in nuclear power plants across Africa.
Currently, the only nuclear power plant in Africa is still South Africa's Koeberg plant near Cape Town, but other countries have plans to change this. Construction of Egypt’s first nuclear power plant at El-Dabaa, 300 kilometres northwest of Cairo has already begun contraction, and is financed in large part by Russia's state-run Rosatom. Nigeria has initiated a bidding process for a 4,000 MW nuclear power plant, and Ghana plans to choose a site for a new nuclear facility by year-end, with Russia a likely candidate for both these projects. In 2015, China agreed to work with Kenya on building a nuclear power plant, and a year later signed a framework agreement with Sudan. For both Russia and China, nuclear cooperation with states in Africa can offer valuable diplomatic leverage.
Read more about this story here.
Armenia to Withdraw Troops from Nagorno-Karabakh
Armenia has announced it will withdraw all remaining military units from Nagorno-Karabakh by September this year. The foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan held talks in Tbilisi, Georgia after Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev complained at the slow pace of the Armenian withdrawal from Nagorno-Karabakh. Aliyev threatened to officially not recognize Armenia's territorial integrity should a peace deal not be signed over the territory.
The completion of the Armenian troop withdrawal is one of the preconditions for the conclusion of a formal peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan. While Karabakh will continue to maintain its own army, which is heavily integrated within Armenia’s command structures, the withdrawal of Armenian troops fulfils a pledge Yerevan made under the ceasefire terms. The withdrawal could leave the Armenian-aligned defence forces vulnerable to Azerbaijani attacks, which could prove effective given the terrain and limited transit possibilities. However, it would not be in Azerbaijan’s interest to jeopardise the swift conclusion of a favourable peace deal.
Read more about this story here.