In Geopolitics Today - Thursday, July 8th
Russia Releases New National Security Strategy Document and Are Positive Relations Between Europe and Russia Possible?
Russia Releases New National Security Strategy Document
Russia has released a new National Security Strategy document, signed by President Vladimir Putin on July 2. The latest iteration of this significant statement of intent for the Russian state going forward covers issues pertaining to national security, the economy, the environment, national values, as well as others. Researcher Dmitri Trenin conducts an early analysis of the document in search of insights for Russian policy going forward.
The central focus of the entire strategy document appears largely inward-looking: demographics, political stability, sovereignty, national harmony, economic development, protection of the environment, and the nation’s moral climate. And with Russia having recently undergone a significant military reform program, the Russian leadership feels confident it can look inward and attempt to address some of the glaring weaknesses and inequalities of the country.
Regarding foreign relations, there are also some notable changes from previous strategies. Firstly, the United States and some NATO member states are now designated as unfriendly states. Secondly, a shift away from Europe is also evident, with key strategic partnerships with India and China elevated to higher levels of importance than European countries. Finally, the document notes that the US alliance structure, coupled with the US’ dominance in the domains of finance and information, are instruments of a containment strategy against Russia.
On the whole, the new National Security Strategy aims to build a framework for the country to adapt to an interconnected world, and it recognises how woefully Russia would fare in the future without drastic changes. In the view of this document, victories will be won on the domestic front, and it is where, for Russia, some of its greatest challenges as a nation-state lie.
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Are Positive Relations Between Europe and Russia Possible?
The question of Europe’s strategic autonomy has come up a few times over the last few years, but the question has yet to yield an answer on whether or not Europe is actually capable of pursuing an independent foreign policy.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emanuel Macron did try to capitalise on the diplomatic buzz surrounding the G-7 and NATO summits by floating the idea of a new EU diplomatic channel with Russia. Merkel in particular hoped to create a format which would establish direct contact with Putin in a bid to restore relations.
But statements following meetings held between European and Russian officials on the side-lines of the summits indicate a that moves toward a thaw in EU-Russia relations may be dead in their tracks. The statements issued called on Russia to change its behaviour, and even threatened further sanctions if Russia persisted in “malign, illegal and disruptive” activities. Moscow was quick to say it regrets the missed opportunity for dialogue, with Lavrov reportedly even stating that Europe is merely a “choir” of the United States.
Eastern European countries have legitimate fears that any joint Franco-German initiative which lessens the geopolitical pressure on Moscow will legitimise Russian interests. Much of their security frameworks are deeply integrated within NATO so any split on Russia policy within the EU, from the perspective of countries like Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, etc., is dangerous.
These countries look to the United States to assume the security burden. For this reason, every time France or Germany considers softening the EU’s stance on Russia, Eastern member states do everything in their power to prevent the success of any such initiative.
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