In Geopolitics Today - Thursday, July 22nd
The Limitations of Russia’s Return to the Middle East and German-US Deal on the Future of Nord Stream 2
The Limitations of Russia’s Return to the Middle East
Russia's military intervention in Syria marked the country’s return to the Middle East as a major power player. Russian airpower and Iranian proxy forces have saved Bashar al-Assad’s government. The choice to intervene on behalf of its ally has allowed Moscow to rekindle old partnerships and establish new ones at a time the United States, worn out by nearly two decades of war, is eager to redeploy its assets to the Indo-Pacific.
But Russia’s returning role must also account for the interests of regional powers. The dominant regional power structure is the coalition known as the Counterrevolutionary Bloc, which consists of Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt. Washington maintains strong ties to each of these countries, and remains the dominant security guarantor for the wider region. Relations are changing however, as the countries which form the Counterrevolutionary Bloc have all deepened their ties with Moscow in recent years.
These regional powers can take advantage of this opportunity to exploit the arrival of Russia for their own ends by deepening ties with Moscow, but ultimately, there are limits to further engagement because relations would be complicated by already established links with the US. Regardless, Russia is still not capable of replacing the United States as the predominant power in the Middle East.
Russia’s return to the Middle East has nonetheless opened avenues for regional powers to exploit great-power politics to their own advantage. But while Washington’s arms exports and trade with regional powers far surpasses that of Moscow, and while Washington continues to underwrite the security arrangements of the region, it is unlikely that this geopolitical state of affairs will dramatically shift due to the arrival of Russia. Still, if relations between Moscow and Washington were to deteriorate further, both powers may begin to compete more aggressively against each other.
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German-US Deal on the Future of Nord Stream 2
Uncertainty surrounding the future of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline appears to be dispelled as the United States and Germany have announced a deal over the completion of the gas pipeline.
The agreement will waiver all US sanctions, allowing for the completion of the project, and will commit Germany to a policy of support toward Ukraine and Poland. As both Ukraine and Poland both are bypassed by the project and are adversarial toward Russia, the US-German agreement will see the funding of alternative energy and development projects in these two countries.
Under the terms of the deal, Washington and Berlin jointly committed to countering Russian attempts at using energy supplies as a political weapon. But Berlin has further commitments of its own, namely that it has committed to utilize all available leverage to “facilitate an extension of up to 10 years to Ukraine’s gas transit agreement with Russia.”
The deal also commits Berlin to take actions at a national and European level in order to limit Russian exports in the event that Russia uses energy as a weapon or violates Ukrainian sovereignty. The deal is designed to ensure that Germany will maintain a policy of support for Poland and Ukraine, and to limit Russia in its use and misuse of any energy pipeline.
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